March Madness Tournament Bubble Watch

[Qbins Missile Crisis]

Bubble Watch: 3/15
By: Chris Copeland Date: Mar 15, 2008
Courtesy SportsAudioShows.com & Tony George

Big day for bubble teams as St Joe’s, Kentucky and UNLV all reach lock status by virtue of winning or not playing. Ohio St lost and will most likely be on the outside looking in come Selection Sunday.

The mid-majors are right in the thick of things still as we head into the final weekend of play before Selection Sunday. And I will continue to reward them (ISU, VCU, USA) for playing road/neutral games and finishing high in their respective conferences.

Bubble Watch will now be updated daily.

There are 31 conference winners that receive automatic bids and 34 At-Large berths available.

Here are the conferences that will have one bid (19): Memphis (C-USA), Butler (Horizon), Cornell (Ivy League), Winthrop (Big South), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Siena (MAAC), Davidson (Southern), Oral Roberts (Summit), Mount St. Mary's (Northeast), Portland State (Big Sky), America East, Big West, MAC, MEAC, Patriot, Southland, SWAC and WAC

After the 19 one-bid conferences, there are 39 spots that are “Locked in” for possibly multiple bid leagues:
A10 (2): Xavier, St Joe’s
ACC (4): Duke, UNC, Clemson, Miami
Big East (7): UCONN, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville, Pitt, West Virginia
Big Ten (4): Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan St
Big 12 (5): Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas St, Texas A&M
Colonial (1): George Mason
Missouri Valley (1): Drake
Mountain West (2): BYU, UNLV
Pac 10 (4): UCLA, Wash St, USC, Stanford
SEC (5): Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Miss St, Arkansas, Kentucky
Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky
WCC (3): Gonzaga, St Mary’s, San Diego

So that leaves 7 spots for potential at-large teams. Each bubble team has a short statement of how many games it needs to win in its respective conference tournament to receive at-large consideration.

Note: Teams in BOLD are teams that would make the field through March 14 games.

A10
Bubble 3: Temple, UMASS, Dayton

Temple: Overall resume isn’t bad, but probably needs the auto-bid.
UMASS: Tough loss to Charlotte. Not sure their profile warrants an at-large bid.
Dayton: Overall good resume, but injuries will keep the Flyers out of the tourney.

ACC
Bubble 1: Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech: If the Hokies beat UNC today, a dance ticket awaits.

Big East
Bubble 1: Villanova

Villanova: Got smoked by G-town. Pretty good resume, but those conference losses are just a killer.

Big 10
Bubble 1: Ohio St

Ohio St: Lost and now headed to the NIT

Big 12
Bubble 1: Baylor

Baylor: Horrible loss last night. Still probably gets a bid because of the weak bubble.

Colonial
Bubble 1: VCU

VCU: Double edge sword for VCU. Bubble teams keep losing, which improves their chances, but their best wins (Maryland, Houston), both lost their opening round games. 12-6 road/neutral record also contributes to their bid.

Missouri Valley
Bubble 1: Illinois St

Illinois St: Second place in a top ten RPI league + bubble teams everywhere losing = ISU bid.

Mountain West
Bubble 1: UNLV, New Mexico

New Mexico: Tough loss last night in OT. Resume is ok. We’ll keep them on the bubble for now.

Pac 10
Bubble 3: Arizona St, Arizona, Oregon

Arizona St: Horrendous call left the Sun Devils on the bubble. 5 wins verse the RPI Top 50 will get them in, though.
Oregon: Good OOC wins. It’s a toss-up at the moment.
Arizona: Yet another UA loss and the Cats are now 4-8 their last 12, including two wins over Oregon St and one against Cal. Are also 0-4 against Oregon and ASU.

Sun Belt
Bubble 1: South Alabama

South Alabama: Profile isn’t spectacular, but has done enough to warrant a bid.


Last 4 in: Illinois St(#65), Arizona, VCU, Oregon

Last 4 out: Villanova(#66), Temple, UMASS, Dayton

Next 3 out: Virginia Tech, New Mexico, Ohio St

Next update on Sunday, March 16, with projected seedings.

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