MMA Betting Guide to EliteXC Underdogs - Free Picks

[Qbins Missile Crisis]

Hey y'all, it's Ryan from This Week in MMA. With BetUS's new hotness of a website up, they asked me to take a few minutes to break down the MMA odds on this weekend's EliteXC show on CBS. In the past I've been mostly about talking up the underdogs, but this event has its fair share of solid sports betting favorites and matches which are too close to call. So I thought I'd break the card down and show you my thoughts on things. Let’s go!



Underdog picks

Jake Shields (-350) vs Nick Thompson (+250)

Jake Shields sure hasn't had the opportunity to fight many top level guys since signing with EliteXC. Which is a shame, because this is a guy who had back to back wins over middleweight contender Yushin Okami and the WEC's current welterweight champ, Carlos Condit. Perhaps if Shields was facing Nick Thompson right after these two wins, I'd give Nick Thompson less of a chance at winning this Saturday. But as it stands, I'm thinking weak competition in 2007 and injuries through 2008 might equal a rusty Jake Shields in the cage on Saturday.

As for Nick Thompson, he's already fought three times this year, winning all three. The most impressive win on his resume over the course of his current 12 fight win streak is a KO of Eddie Alvarez ... you know, that guy who was going to win the DREAM Lightweight Grand Prix before Japanese doctors axed him over a cut?

While Shields is the favorite for a reason - he's wiped the mat with all his recent opposition - I've got an edge on Nick Thompson winning this fight. He hasn't had the same opportunities to prove himself the way Jake Shields has. Whenever he gets a chance, he seems to capitalize on it. If there's a high profile upset on this card, this is the one.

Justin Eilers (+450) vs Antonio Silva (-600)

I mocked EliteXC when they set up Eilers vs Silva as a title fight ... it seemed like a formality fight to put the strap around Silva, who EliteXC hopes to make the 'legitimate' cornerstone of their heavyweight division. However, you know what they say about best laid plans, right? Simply put, I don't buy the idea that Silva is worth the odds he's getting. The guy has a short history against questionable opponents, and while Eilers just adds to the list, he has legitimate KO power and a decent ground game. This one is liable to end up being the Kimbo vs James Thompson fight of this event, but this time the heavy favorite won't have referee Dan Miragliotta around to mess up calls and save him.

Thomas Denny (+450) vs Nick Diaz (-600)

Before you call me crazy, consider this: a cut win is still a win. And Diaz has been taken to decisions by lesser competition in the recent past, nearly being edged out in the process. True, if the Diaz that gave us wars against Diego Sanchez, Karo Parisyan, and Takanori Gomi shows up, Denny doesn't stand much of a chance. But that seems to be the Nick Diaz of old. The new Nick Diaz has looked awful uninspiring. My bet on Thomas Denny has less to do with Denny (although he's a solid journeyman), and more to do with Diaz not living up to his potential of late.

Favorite picks

Wilson Reis (-155) vs Brian Caraway (+125)

This is a case where I suspect the odds are biased on account of a fighter's record, something which is quickly meaning less and less in this sport. Brian Caraway is 10-2. Wilson Reis is 4-0. While Reis is being touted as the next big thing in EliteXC's 140 division, Caraway is ... 10-2. Surely that experience means something, right? Wrong. Nowadays, just because you spent more time banging out wins in the minors doesn't mean you've got an edge.

There's other factors to Caraway being so tight on the odds - he's got 9 submission wins and none of his fights have gone out of the second round. The guy is aggressive and has some skills. But his game lines up perfectly with Wilson's game, so it's going to be two guys battling to see who's best at what they do. This doesn't bode well for Caraway, and I've got Reis putting him away handily.

Rafael Feijao (-500) vs Travis Galbraith (+350)

All you people researching this fight at home are probably wondering why Rafael Feijao, a guy with a 0-4 record, is such a heavy favorite over the 15-5 Travis Galbraith. Well, it's because that's not the right Rafael Feijao. The Feijao competing against Galbraith is Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante, who holds a 6-1 record with the only loss coming via DQ for an illegal kick.

This Feijao also trains with Anderson Silva, and seems to have picked up some of the Spider's striking tricks. The guy is absolutely deadly, knocking people out left and right. It's a rare time that I'd recommend putting a play down on such a heavy favorite, but I simply don't see Galbraith (a guy who consistently wins until he faces major league competition) winning this one.

Too close to call

Shayna Baszler (-200) vs Cris Cyborg (+160)

Shayna is a beast on the ground, having learned everything there is to know about submissions from top heavyweight contender Josh Barnett. There's not a fight that goes by where she doesn't pull a wacky catch-wrestling submission out of her ass to completely confuse her opponents.

However, if there's one thing Shayna is susceptable to, it's getting knocked out. Tara LaRosa did it to her, and so did Amanda Buckner and Kelly Kobald. So what's going to happen when Baszler steps in the ring with Cris Cyborg, who's got massive biceps and fists of stone? This is a classic striker vs grappler match-up, but unlike a lot of those fights, don't expect any kind of stylistic stalemate here. Cyborg is known for being aggressive, so expect her to wade in and start swinging. If Shayna can't finish this quickly, or if she gets into a bad position, she's going to be in big trouble. On the other hand, you can't dismiss her edge when it comes to technique and experience. I'm torn.

Scott Smith (+200) vs Robbie Lawler (-260)

The odds look pretty accurate on this one. Lawler is the favorite going into this one because he's got the better record and performed better in their first fight. But you can't ignore the fact that Lawler couldn't seem to put Smith away, and ate a whole bunch of heavy punches in the process. It only takes one on the button to end the fight, and these guys seem like they're planning on engaging in another wild slugfest.