Khan vs. Gomez Boxing Free Prediction + Picks

[Shame About Ray]

Boxing Betting – Khan vs. Gomez

BetUS Sportsbook boxing bettors will get to peer into what is perhaps the future of the lightweight division on Saturday when hot prospect-turned-contender Amir Khan defends his British Commonwealth 135-pound crown against the challenge of veteran Michael Gomez. The bout is scheduled for 12 rounds and will emanate from the National Indoor Arena in Birmingham (England, not Alabama).



BetUS boxing betting odds:
British Commonwealth Lightweight (135-pound) title
June 21 -- Birmingham, England

AMIR KHAN -1600
MICHAEL GOMEZ +800

Under 7.5 Rounds -263
Over 7.5 Rounds +198

For sports betting purposes, let's size up the contestants:

KHAN (17-0, 13 KO's), the -1600 favorite in the BetUS boxing betting odds, is truly considered the next great hope for British boxing. His amateur highlights included an appearance at the 2004 Olympics, where he went to the finals in the 132-pound division before losing to Mario Kindelan of Cuba and settling for the silver medal. He turned pro in July of 2005 and has been perfect since, and though it can be said that he is being brought along carefully, he doesn't have to be overly protected because of his talent level. Khan captured the Commonwealth lightweight crown in July of '07 with a stoppage of Willie Limond after eight rounds, and has defended against Scott Lawton, Graham Earl, Gairy St. Clair and Martin Kristjansen (the latest, on April 5). Only St. Clair was able to go the distance.

GOMEZ (35-8, 24 KO's), the +800 underdog at BetUS, is known as the "Irish Mexican," although he isn't really Mexican at all; in fact, his real name is Michael Armstrong, and he was forced to change his ring moniker by the British Boxing Board of Control because there was a conflict with another fighter of the same name. he is from a gypsy background, was once charged with murder (he was later acquitted of the reduced charge of manslaughter) and has also experienced death on an operating table, before being revived. Oh, and he's had a boxing career too. Gomez lost three of his first seven pro fights, then went on a tear, eventually becoming the IBF Intercontinental featherweight champ, then the British and WBU titleholder at 130 pounds, at his peak he was on of the more popular fighters in the U.K., but despite wins over Alex Arthur and Justin Jukko, was never really considered world-class by ring observers outside of England. His last fight of any significance was in October, when he was stopped in six rounds by Carl Johanneson.

I'm not sure how difficult this fight really is to analyze; there appears to be little question that Khan's skill level is a cut above that which Gomez exhibited even at his peak. So there should be little problem in the former Olympian getting his hand raised in victory, particularly because, as we know, promoter Frank Warren has bigger plans for him and his matchmakers have carefully studied Gomez before hand-picking him for this bout.

But the 16/1 you'd have to lay on Khan is hardly attractive. Look at the total. Gomez is what some would call a "shot fighter," and shot fighters don't get more durable as they go, they get less able to hang in there for long periods of time and give a sustained effort. Each of Gomez's last 17 fights have ended inside the distance, and five of those were losses. The last three of those losses were shorter in duration than the 7.5 rounds that is laid out here in the BetUS odds. And after being halted by the likes of Peter McDonagh and Javier Osvaldo Alvarez, we don;t give much for Gomez's chances of hanging tough with a younger, fresher, quicker, sharper Khan, especially if Khan decides to put forth an onslaught.

So the choice is simple - it's UNDER 7.5 rounds in the BetUS boxing betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 7.5 ROUNDS (-263) **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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