The Standard: 200 units (last day 8/31/09)
Yesterday: 3-3, -1.55 units
Currently: -67.15 units
Units remaining: 267.15
21-10-1, +52.85 units in first 6 days of July
Totals run of 19-7-2 last 28.
First losing day of July, only 1.55 units. I pulled the trigger on the Yanks total late, and it cost me a winning day. I had that total and the Astros total going under but trimmed the card to 5 plays, then adding the Yankee under. I never felt like posting back here for just one play on the Astros game. Still plenty of days left but it could very well come down to a little mistake like that causing a pass or fail for this thread!
7/7/09
$500 LA Dodgers -135
Kershaw(5-5, 3.49 ERA) will try to keep the Mets slumping as he will face Pelfrey(6-3, 4.26 ERA). The Mets have lacked pitching and of course the lumber at the plate. Pelfrey would certainly need one of his best outings of the year to come out victorious in this one. Pelfrey allowed 2 ERs over 7 innings in his home start last year vs. LA. The Mets are just 2-4 in his last 6 starts and opponents have scored 24 runs in his last 3 at home. LA has new life with Manny back, as they have scored 17 runs in his 3 games back while the previous 6 gms saw 16 total runs. That says a lot. Kershaw has gone 2-0(1.00) in his last 3. Opponents have scored 3 or less runs in 6 of his last 8 outings, and he has allowed just 2 ERs in his last 24 innings. Mets slide continues.
$500 TB Rays -185
This line has crept down from the opening of over -200 for Shields and the Rays. Primarily for the fact that the Rays will not face Brad Mills tonight. Instead, Rzepczynski, tough to spell, will get his first start. Either way, the Rays are miserable after losing to the Rangers in all 3 games. They will get a measure of revenge tonight. Shields has not pitched bad against the jays and I feel if Tampa can put up at least 5-6 in this one they will win it easily. More and more shy away from this game, because of the dominant pitching that has come up into the majors this year, but for every star there is a not so hot prospect. Tampa by 3.
$200 Boston -1.5(-120)
Not taking the juice as the Sox have been sour lately losing some games they should have won. The way things are looking with the Eveland, and Beckett match-up they should win this by 4+ tonight. Dana Eveland has struggled lately, allowing 7 ERs in his last outing and has allowed 4 or more ERs in 4 of his last 6. Not to mention in 2 starts he allowed 14 ERs to the Sox. Beckett doesnt need an explanation as he has proven he can pitch, especially at home. Against Oakland, the As have managed just 12 runs in his last 4 against him. Nothing proves that they will put up more runs than usual in this one. Beckett really has not changed over the course of those 3+ seasons. Look for an over in this one as Boston should roll 7-3 or 8-4.
$200 NY Yankees/Minnesota UNDER 9
Sabathia and Baker come into this game with nearly identical WHIP at 1.15 and 1.14 respectively. Sabathia comes off the rough outing against Seattle so I expect the bounce back. Since 2007, he has not allowed more than 2 ERs in any of the 6 starts vs. Min. CC has actually gone 17 straight innings with 0 ERs allowed vs. Minnesota. Baker is not too shabby either, as he has settled in nicely after the Twins were having trouble with starters early on. Baker had a rough May, but is cruising in June, not allowing more than 3 ERs in any of his 6 starts. He has not faced the Yanks since 06, where he allowed 2 ERs in 12 innings, allowing 5 hits in those 2 games with 8 Ks. It has been a few years, but Baker will control this game. Minny has gone 20-6-2 to the under, last 28 as dogs. 4-2 final.
$200 Baltimore/Seattle UNDER 8
The Ms will send Bedard to the hill to face off with Guthrie and the Os. In Guthries last 3, opponents have averaged 3 runs per game. All 3 games went under the total. Guthrie has only allowed 9 ERs in his previous 4 starts against Seattle, which has been a hair over 2 per outing. Seattle managed just 11 runs in those 4 gms, and all 4 of those starts went under by a combined 12.5 runs. That is clearing the under by 3 runs per game. Bedard has a 2.15 ERA at home this season. He has failed to allow the opposition more than 2 ERs at home all year. He already faced the Os this season, at home, only allowing 1 ER over 6+ innings of work. Bedard and the Ms have gone 4-1 to the under in his last 5 outings, which have usually been set at 7.5 runs. I expect a 3-2 final or similar to it.
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