AFL playoff betting begins Friday night when online sports betting fanatics get to sink their teeth into a National Conference Wild Card game as the (8-8) #6 New York Dragons head to American Airlines Center to take on the (12-4) #3 Dallas Desperados. This will be the first playoff game for the Dragons since a 2006 defeat in the opening round of the playoffs to the Georgia Force. They are 1-4 all-time in postseason play. The Desperados notched 28 wins in the regular season in 2006 & 2007, but in those two seasons, went just 1-2 in three playoff games. Dallas is 2-4 in the second season all-time.
After a competitive first half, the Desperados looked up at the scoreboard and had their playoff fate sealed as the Philadelphia Soul clinched the #1 seed in the National Conference by virtue of their victory over the Dragons. They let QB Clint Dolezel rest and took it easy on the host Chicago Rush in the second half of Sunday’s ESPN telecast, and consequently let their AFL betting fans down in a big way. As three-point underdogs, Dallas looked good, tied at halftime (35-35). However, after taking out starting QB Clint Dolezel, the offense struggled to keep up with a determined Rush offense ultimately losing by a 75-63 final count. With the offense playing a full 60 minutes against New York, looks for a much more consistent effort on the offensive side of the ball.
It’s do-or-die time for Aaron Garcia and the Dragons. Last week, they suffered two big setbacks against the rival Philadelphia Soul, and the 59-30 home defeat was the least of their worries. Garcia suffered an injury in the 1st half, and the Dragons were just a defeated team after that. The game meant little to New York after clinching a playoff spot with a New Orleans loss on Saturday, but that left little consolation to their AFL bettors in a game where they were just 3-point underdogs. Garcia should be ready to play on Friday night, but he is injury prone and could be in for a long night against a Dallas defense that recorded 21 sacks on the year.
The betting trends seem to offer mixed results in the history of these teams. Neither has had much luck in the playoffs. Dallas is 1-5 ATS in six playoff games, while New York has yet to cover a game in their playoff lives (0-4-1 ATS). Head Coaches Will McClay and Weylan Harding have combined for just one playoff victory in their young careers. The loser of this game could be coaching his final game. The all-time series between Dallas and New York is split at 6-6 ATS, though the Desperados have won 9 of the 12 meetings straight up. The Dragons covered both games this year though, as they were 12-point home underdogs early in the season to Dallas (L 33-31) and were six-point road underdogs just a couple of weeks ago (L 51-49).
Oddsmakers tagged the Desperados as 6.5-point home favorites at the open in this Wild Card showdown, but the line has since moved up to a full touchdown. The ‘total’ in this game now sits at 103. This game features the two worst offenses in the playoffs in the National Conference. Dallas averages 53.8 PPG, while New York averages just 51.4 PPG. The difference in this one might come on offense, where the Desperados average holding teams to a conference-best 49.9 PPG.
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