NFL: BETTORS BACKING BALTIMORE
Defense is the name of the game when the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens in Sunday’s AFC Championship game.
Pittsburgh quickly jumped up to a six-point favorite after opening at five, but the last look at the early betting line has 56% of members taking the Ravens.
Perhaps the most interesting line in this game is the Over/ Under of just 34 points. That’s what happens when you have the two top-ranked defenses in the NFL squarely off and weather expected to be around 20 degrees with a chance of light snow showers.
If history between the two squads means anything in this game, then Baltimore will cover the spread with the Over/Under is looking towards the Under.
The Ravens lost the first game in Pittsburgh, 23-20 in overtime back in September. The weather for that game was 65 degrees and you have to figure it will be a lot harder to move the ball consistently in the cold weather.
The second game was in Baltimore in December and Pittsburgh was very fortunate to score a late touchdown and win 13-9.
A quick look at the numerous propswe have for this game shows the Over/Under for rushing yards for Willie Parker is just 62.5. Parker looked rested and healthy last week in the Divisional game against the Chargers with 146 yards, but he was held to just 47 in the meeting in Baltimore after missing the first matchup due to injury.
If Parker really struggles to run the ball, then Ben Roethlisberger is going to be a sitting duck in the backfield against the Ravens pass rush. That’s never a good thing for someone who suffered a pretty good concussion just three weeks ago.
Our unique Ben Roethlisberger Propasks how may completions will he throw this week? The co-favorites in this category are 17 and 18. ‘Big Ben’ had 17 completions last week against the Chargers.
The pressure on the other side of the ball clearly falls to rookie quarterback Joe Flacco. Flacco may seem immune to pressure so far, but playing in an AFC Championship game on the road is a difficult thing.
All you have to do is go back to Roethlisberger’s rookie year in 2004 when he threw three interceptions in New England against that tough Patriots defense.
Baltimore isn’t going to want Flacco to have to win this game on his arm and they are more in need of a good running game than Pittsburgh. The problem is that it is very hard to run on the Steelers at home.
Flacco is going to have to squeeze some throws into the middle of the field and the Ravens have to hope that some of the bad passess fall as incompletions as opposed to interceptions.
And while it is very hard for a team to beat another three times in one season, I still can’t see Pittsburgh losing this game, although the six points leaves a good margin for error and is where the most value lies.
Primetime Prop Alert
Note we are also offering our Primetime Prop Promotion for this game. This has hit an incredible 10 times this season including last week when thousands of our members had their Player to Score 1st TD prop refunded when Pittsburgh’s Willie Parker scored two touchdowns without scoring the first one.
There are two Primetime Props this week:
If you bet on the ‘Margin of Victory’ prop for this game and it loses due to the last score of the game which occurs within the last minute of the game, your stake will be refunded up to $100.00 for this specific prop.
If you bet on the ‘Total Points Scored’ prop for this game and it loses due to the last score of the game which occurs within the last minute of the game, your stake will be refunded up to $100.00 for this specific prop.
