NFL: BETTORS BACKING GREEN BAY
The New Orleans Saints are small home favorites over the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football, but the betting public is squarely against them.
Both of these teams are 5-5 and right in the playoff chase in the NFC. The game starts at 8:30 pm ET game on ESPN and the Saints are 2 ½-point favorites, but only a tiny 17% of bettors are backing them.
This game represents the end of an odyssey for New Orleans. They last played in the Superdome back on October 12th, blowing out Oakland 34-3. Since then, they’ve had three road games and a game against San Diego in London, England that technically counts as a home game for them.
In the Superdome so far this year, New Orleans is 3-1 straight-up and ATS. The loss came against Minnesota 30-27 and it was really caused by the turnover differential as the Saints out-gained their opponents by more than 100 yards but gave up four turnovers.
The classic matchup in this game is Drew Brees and top-rated passing attack going against Green Bay’s third-ranked pass defense. Green Bay has two very good, physical corners in Al Harris and Charles Woodson, but the Saints have plenty of receivers to choose from and you should also see a lot of tight end Jeremy Shockey over the middle.
There’s also some good news this week with Reggie Bush expected to return from his knee injury. He’ll likely share carries with Pierre Thomas with Deuce McAllister also sprinkled in.
Green Bay is coming off their most important game of the year, a 37-3 home win over Chicago at Lambeau Field. That moves the Pack into a tie in the NFC North with Minnesota and Chicago.
The key to last week’s win was controlling the clock (37 to 22 minutes) via the running game with Ryan Grant and Brandon Jackson. Grant had 145 yards on the ground as he seems to be improving every week. Running the ball against the Saints 19th-ranked run defense is top priority as it eats up clock and keeps Drew Brees on the sidelines.
Running also means less pressure on quarterback Aaron Rodgers. He’s much better when he’s just managing the game and kept under 30 pass attempts. Rodgers’ quarterback rating is fifth in the league at 94.5, just one slot behind Brees.
Green Bay is 2-3 on the road this year, losing their last two; at Tennessee in overtime and at Minnesota by one point. However, they are 4-1 ATS away from home and they are riding a five-game ATS winning streak.
In addition to the game and Total wagering, we also have our Primetime Prop for this contest. If you back the player who scores the first touchdown in the “Player to Score 1st TD” prop for the Packers @ Saints game and he scores an additional touchdown in the third quarter, your winning wager will be doubled up to $100.00 for this specific prop.
Grant leads the way at 5:1 odds to score the first touchdown and he’ll be looking for a multiple touchdown game.
We also have plenty of other props too, like whether Rodgers will throw for more than 245.5 yards.
