NFL Football Betting: NFL Week 11 Preview
You’ve made it this far with your bankbook intact. Congratulations; it’s been a challenging year, even for the NFL betting experts. Now here comes your chance for a reward.
The last two months of the regular season are where many of us make our money. We’ve seen what most teams (players and coaches) are capable of. We have the data to back up our analysis. We know these things, but many bettors in the marketplace are just as square now as they were when the season started.
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Before we get to our Week 11 preview, here are three simple steps to consider for getting the most out of the NFL odds going forward.
1. Get the weather: Really, you should be doing this every week, but we understand if meteorology hasn’t been at the top of your to-do list up until now. But it’s almost Thanksgiving. The weather is changing in most parts of the country, and not for the better. The same two teams playing in a dome will produce a different result than they would on the proverbial frozen tundra. Adjust your bets accordingly
2. Read the injury reports: There’s a reason the average NFL career lasts about 3.5 years. This is the most brutal of the major sports, and by the time you get to mid-November, most dressing rooms look more like M*A*S*H* units. Make sure you know which teams are thin at which positions, and don’t ignore the offensive and defensive lines. Quite the contrary – give these players extra consideration, since the betting public is largely unaware of their existence.
3. Go home: We’re coming up to that magical point in the season where home-field advantage gains extra importance. Teams are wearing down (see Step 2), leaving them more susceptible to the rigors of long-distance travel and to the challenge of playing in unfamiliar and adverse weather conditions (see Step 1). Home dogs are typically a good call once the turkey has been served; they went 14-11-1 ATS last year from Week 13 to the end of the regular season. That’s 13-9-1 ATS if you leave out wacky Week 17, which has its own strange logic.
Jauron is off
The Buffalo Bills (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS) have sent head coach Dick Jauron on his merry way after nearly four years in the Queen City. Owner Ralph Wilson made the announcement on Tuesday. This move will appease the disgruntled fan base, but not the players themselves – except for perhaps QB Trent Edwards. Rumor has it Edwards (74.1 passer rating) was going to be benched by Jauron this week in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick (49.8 passer rating).
Defensive co-ordinator Perry Fewell has been named interim coach for this Sunday’s matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Fewell is expected to announce his starting QB on Wednesday; whichever man he chooses has to operate behind an offensive line that ranks No. 28 out of 32 teams in pass protection. It’ll get worse now that left tackle Demetrius Bell is out with a knee injury. The Bills are 9-point road dogs (-115) with a total of 43.
RB Roundup
Three tailbacks have made headlines this week, with varying degrees of importance to handicappers. The Cincinnati Bengals have signed Larry Johnson after he was let go by the Kansas City Chiefs, but Johnson isn’t expected to play much if at all this Sunday against the Oakland Raiders (+10 in Oakland). The Philadelphia Eagles are likely to be without Brian Westbrook versus the Chicago Bears (+3 in Chicago) after Westbrook suffered his second concussion in three weeks against the San Diego Chargers. And Ronnie Brown isn’t going to play for the Miami Dolphins this Thursday against the Carolina Panthers (-3 in Charlotte) because of a foot injury.
Ricky Williams (5.3 yards per carry) will carry the load for the Dolphins, although Miami’s ability to run the Wildcat offense will be compromised without Brown. But the biggest concern is in Philadelphia. The Eagles have fallen to 5-4 SU and ATS, losing two of three since Westbrook (4.8 yards per carry) suffered his first concussion against the Washington Redskins. With Westbrook’s career in doubt, it looks like rookie LeSean McCoy (4.1 yards per carry) holds Philly’s fate in his hands. The good news for Eagles supporters is that the Bears (4-5 SU and ATS) are ranked No. 16 in the NFL in defensive efficiency against the run and have lost four of their last five games.
Football season is starting to pick up speed – and the Bodog Sportsbook has all the football betting lines to keep you going!
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