NFL: CONFERENCE TITLE TRENDS
We’re down to the NFL ‘Final Four’ and there may be ways to predetermine who will advance by looking at past trends from conference championship games.
I’ll be looking at past pointspreads and totals, home/road dichotomy, and providing an update on the angles focusing on statistics of teams left.
Visit our live odds page for the latest lines for all of this weekend’s action.
General Conference Championship Trends
Visitors swept the ATS action for the first time since 2002 in last year’s conference title games. Not coincidentally, the combined pointspreads for the favorites was 22.5 points, marking the first time since 2002 that figure reached 20 or more.
In general, home field advantage has meant very little once the teams reach this round. Since 1993, home teams are just 18-14 straight-up for 56%, the lowest winning percentage of any playoff round.
Here are some other tidbits that could help you prepare for Sunday’s games:
1) The Conference Championships have produced the highest scoring games in recent years as the last 14 contests have seen an average of 46.9 PPG. In that span, the Over is on a strong run of 10-3-1, for 76.9%.
2) NFC title games have been solid Over bets, 11-4-1 since 1993.
3) When a road team is favored in this round, it is nearly always successful lately, 4-1 straight-up and 3-1-1 ATS since 1993.
4) Home favorites of nine-points or less are more successful than those laying more points, going 12-7 straight-up and ATS since 1993.
5) In past conference championship games without double-digit pointspreads, the straight up winner is 24-0-1 ATS since 1993. So, if you pick the underdog, play the money line, if you side with the favorite, take comfort in laying the points.
6) Including Green Bay’s loss a year ago, championship game home teams that are not #1 seeds are just 3-5 straight-up and 2-5-1 ATS since 1993.
7) Non-divisional winners, or true ‘Wild-card’ teams, boast an impressive 6-3 straight-up and 6-2-1 ATS record in their last 10 conference championships.
NFL Playoff Statistical Analysis
Here is a list of NFL playoff trends that have proven successful to follow or fade in recent years. All of these angles reflect the teams’ current statistics, including this year’s playoff games.
1) Home teams scoring 26 PPG or more are just 14-21 ATS (40%). Record in 2009: 2-1 ATS. This suggest going against Arizona.
2) Home teams allowing less than 17 PPG are 22-17 ATS (56.4%). Record in 2009: 1-1 ATS. This suggests going for Pittsburgh.
3) Road teams allowing less than 17 PPG are 19-11 ATS (63.3%). Record in 2009: 2-0 ATS. This suggests going for Baltimore.
4) Home teams outscoring their opponents by less than 5.0 PPG on the season are 8-14 ATS (36.4%). Record in 2009: 1-2 ATS. This suggests going against Arizona.
5) Road teams that allow 3.90 yards per carry or fewer are 27-11 ATS (71.1%). Record in 2009: 3-0 ATS. This suggests taking Baltimore and Philadelphia.
6) Home teams that gain more than 7.40 yards per pass attempt or more on the season are just 9-17 ATS (34.6%). Record in 2009: 2-2 ATS. This suggests going against Arizona.
7) Road teams out-gaining their opponents by 0.25 or more yards per play on the season are 15-7 ATS (68.2%). Record in 2009: 5-2 ATS. This suggests taking Baltimore and Philadelphia.
8) Road teams that enjoyed a turnover differential of more than +1.00 per game on the season are 8-2 ATS (80%). Record in 2009: 0-0 ATS. This suggests taking Baltimore.
