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Free Prediction: Royals vs. Orioles Gambling Odds & ALCS Game 3 Handicapping

Baltimore vs Kansas City ALCS Picks

Game 3 of the American League Championship Series sees the setting switch to Kaufmann Stadium where the Baltimore Orioles will take on the Kansas City Royals on Monday October 13.  Cappers Picks provides free MLB handicapping tips all season long.

The Orioles were 0 for 2 at home to start the ALCS. They are hoping that a change of venue will get them into the win column.

Kansas City Royals (2-0) vs. Baltimore Orioles (0-2)
Monday October 13
8:00PM
Kaufmann Stadium – Kansas City, MO
FOX
MLB Betting Lines:  Kansas City -110, Baltimore -110
MLB Betting Total:  7.5
Probable Pitchers:
BAL:  Wei-Yin Chen (L)
KC:  Jeremy Guthrie (R)
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Baltimore

The Orioles are in a bad spot. They are down 2-0 after two home games and the only solace they can take is that they were two close games. There have been a fair number of runs scored over the first two games but the O’s keep falling short.

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Obviously they could use a little more production but it is difficult to put it at someone’s feet in particular. It is hard to get your whole lineup going at the same time. Perhaps the lack of pressure of being on the road will help. It worked for K.C.

He may be just the G3 starter but Wei-Yin Chen had a very good season leading the Orioles in wins with 16. Normally very consistent his one playoff start was far from good as he didn’t even get out of the fourth inning against Detroit.  His numbers against the Royals this season are much better. Over two starts he gave up just three runs over 12 innings and the Orioles won both games. The pressure is on for him to come through for sure.

Kansas City

Where as Baltimore is wondering what happened the Royals have to be jumping for joy at their good fortune. Now into their third opponent they have not lost a single playoff game, which has to seem a little weird because they are kind of playing off type by scoring a lot more runs than they did during the regular season.

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They averaged about 4 runs per game then but have been held below that just once in the 6 games they played. The pressure is a bit off with a 2-0 lead but they still have more games to win.

Jeremy Guthrie seems like the perfect G3 starter when you are up 2-0. He is far from the Royals best for this game they are hoping he might steal one and pitch deep into the game so as not to overtax the bullpen…again. Guthrie has not pitched at all in the postseason but was very sharp down the stretch in high pressure situations giving up just one run over his final 20 innings.

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His number against the O’s are fair but the Royals lost both is his starts against his former club.

MLB Handicapping Trends

  • Over is 7-1 in BAL last 8 on grass.
  • BAL are 10-2 in their last 12 Mon. games.
  • Under is 25-9 in BAL last 34 road games.
  • KC are 8-0 in their last 8 games as an underdog.
  • Over is 7-2-1 in KC last 10 home games.
  • KC are 10-3 in their last 13 Mon. games.
  • Under is 11-5-1 in the last 17 meetings.

MLB Prediction:  OVER 7.5

4* FREE MLB Score prediction: Kansas City 6 – Baltimore 5

Decent value all around on this one. The odds are the Royals just can’t continue to get all the breaks which is why I think the over holds the better value. Then you don’t have to be as precise.

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By The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.