Week 9 Spreads: Baltimore vs Cincinnati

November 8, 2009 by DaveB

NFL Week 9 Picks – Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, November 8th – 1PM ET
Paul Brown Stadium – Cincinnati, OH

NFL Point Spread: Ravens -3, O/U: 43.5

For two teams who have played only seven games, this rates as a very important battle on the first full weekend of November. Playoff berths often come down to in-division tiebreakers, so as the Ravens and Bengals stage their second showdown of the season, the stakes are very high.

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A Baltimore win would even the season series at a game apiece, while also creating a tie in the AFC North standings. A Cincinnati victory, on the other hand, would give the Bengals a two-game numerical lead plus a head-to-head tiebreaker; in other words, a three-game advantage when tiebreakers are taken into account.

NFL Handicapping: What The Ravens Have To Do To Win

Clean it up – that’s Baltimore’s mantra as coach John Harbaugh brings his team into Paul Brown Stadium. In Baltimore’s Oct. 11 home loss to Cincinnati, the Ravens committed 10 penalties, one of them a defensive pass interference violation that sustained the Bengals’ game-winning drive in the final minute.

That stinging 17-14 loss to Cincinnati, which makes this game even more important for Baltimore, was also marred by two interceptions thrown by normally reliable quarterback Joe Flacco. On a day when they held the Bengals to a net total of only 10 points (Baltimore’s defense allowed 17 points but scored seven on an interception return), the Ravens could only muster one offensive touchdown.

The Ravens are coming off an impressive and punishing 30-7 win over the no-longer-unbeaten Denver Broncos. In that contest, Flacco avoided turnovers and allowed his defense to take charge – that’s the long-established and proven formula for the Ravens, dating back to their Super Bowl-winning season in 2000. If Baltimore doesn’t hand cheap points or extra possessions to the Bengals, the visitors’ chances go way up in Ohio.

NFL Handicapping: What The Bengals Have To Do To Win

Dominate on first down. That has to be Cincinnati’s most immediate and urgent task against a Baltimore defense that smothered Denver on Nov. 1. When the Ravens operate at a high level, linebacker Ray Lewis and his teammates impose a brawny style of play on opposing offenses. Baltimore’s defense knows how to punch an offense in the mouth and take it out of rhythm, and Cincinnati knows the feeling. The Bengals moved the ball in fits and starts on Oct. 11 in Baltimore, but could rarely sustain drives.

If Baltimore reduces its defensive mistakes, the Bengals could be in for a long day. The key to avoiding a miserable afternoon lies in the ability to win first down and avoid third-and-long situations. If quarterback Carson Palmer can distribute the ball to his receivers before the Ravens’ pressure arrives, the Bengals can use their speed to win specific matchups. By neutralizing Baltimore’s raw power with their athleticism on the edges, the Bengals can gain the season sweep they’d love to have.

NFL Handicapping: Outlook & Pick

The Bengals’ offense might have learned from the first meeting between these teams. It’s very possible that Carson Palmer could flourish after a bye week. However, the AFC North is a rough division (it produced the AFC Championship Game matchup last season), and with the Ravens in dire need of a win, it’s hard to imagine the Bengals playing with the desperation needed to match Baltimore for 60 minutes. A sense of urgency should carry the Ravens in another low-scoring game.

NFL Point Spread Pick: Ravens -3 & Under 43.5