Week 8 Spreads: San Francisco vs. Indianapolis

October 30, 2009 by DaveB

The Keys to Win: 49ers vs Colts

San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, November 1st – Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
NFL Point Spread: Colts -12, O/U: 44

The 49ers found some life last week, despite losing by three in Houston against the Texans. Quarterback Alex Smith, filling in for an ineffective Shaun Hill, rallied coach Mike Singletary’s squad to three touchdowns, but a late interception sealed the 49ers’ fate in the heart of Texas.

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Newly armed with a measure of hope, the 49ers will now travel to Indianapolis and see how many points they can score against the high-flying Colts, who don’t figure to be held down anytime soon. Peyton Manning is playing at an MVP level this season, as coach Jim Caldwell has the post-Tony Dungy era off to a fabulous start. The latest win for Indianapolis came last week in St. Louis, as the Colts clubbed the reeling Rams, 42-6.

NFL Handicapping: What The 49ers Have To Do To Win

Win red zone battles. San Francisco won’t prevent the Colts from moving the ball up and down the field – that’s just not a reasonable expectation. What the 49ers have to do is shut down the long ball and avoid major breakdowns in the secondary. If Mike Singletary’s team can force Peyton Manning to throw check-down passes in the flat, and make the 6-0 Colts inch the ball up field, San Francisco can shorten the game and set the stage for numerous red-zone situations on defense. If the Niners can stand tall inside their own 20, they can force a bunch of field goals and stay competitive. No one in Singletary’s locker room can deny that the Colts are a huge favorite. In response to their predicament, the Niners can’t make the perfect the enemy of the good. They’ll give up points; they just need to give up threes instead of sevens.

NFL Handicapping: What The Colts Have To Do To Win

Harass Alex Smith. San Francisco’s highly-touted No. 1 pick in the 2005 NFL Draft showed last week against Houston why he’s the 49ers’ best hope under center. Smith will step into Lucas Oil Stadium with a full tank of confidence and optimism, so the main task for Jim Caldwell’s crew is to make an early statement on the defensive side of the ball. By rattling Smith from the get-go and preventing the Niner quarterback from establishing a comfort zone in the pocket, Indianapolis will be able to prevent San Francisco from eating clock, and thereby keeping the ball away from Peyton Manning and Co. The Colts won’t lose this game on offense, but if San Francisco scores big and stays on the field, things could get interesting. Dwight Freeney and the rest of this Indianapolis defense must make sure the Niners don’t create any drama.

NFL Handicapping: Outlook & Pick

The 49ers have already won at Arizona this season, and they came within two seconds (and one remarkable Brett Favre touchdown pass) of stunning the Minnesota Vikings in Minneapolis. The Colts can’t sleep on this week’s opponent. With that said, one doesn’t figure they will. The nfl betting point spread pick is questionable, but this game definitely feels as though it will produce more than 43 points. Go with the over, as the Colts move to 7-0 on the season.

NFL Point Spread Pick: Colts -12 & Over 44