This Week’s PGA Tour Predictions!
The third leg of the Florida swing comes our way from Palm Harbor this week when the 2015 Valspar Championship is contested a the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort. Copperhead is a par 71, 7,340 yard track that rewards a solid all-around game.
2015 Valspar Championship
When: March 12 – 15, 2015
Where: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) – Palm Harbor, Florida.
Purse: $5,900,000 / Winner Share: $1,062,000
Defending Champion: John Senden
***2015 BONUSES***
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Length is a benefit here but not the determining factor – there are five par 3s, four of which stretch out to over 200 yards – good iron play has to be the focus when doing your research. But elite an elite ball-striking ability is crucial – fairways and greens are notoriously tough to hit on what has been one of the toughest stops every year on TOUR.
So who should we be keeping an eye on this week? Let’s take a look.
2015 Valspar Championship Favorites:
Adam Scott 12/1
The #1 player in the world certainly didn’t show a whole lot of rust last week in his first start of the year – he was T4 at the Cadillac. Scott is one of the best ball stickers ever seen and a short putter seems to be suiting him well.
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He has four consecutive top 4s worldwide and has to be in the conversation this week on a track that suits his game very well.
Jordan Spieth 14/1
this season has gone T-7, MC, T-7, T-4 and a T-17 finish last week in his last five starts and has been good in two starts on this track – a T20 last year and a T7 in his debut in 2013. His putter was Hot last week at Doral which should suit him well this week. The next Superstar may be overdue for a win and it may come here!
Henrik Stenson 16/1
Made his 2015 debut last week at Doral and certainly didn’t disappoint finishing T4. He makes his Copperhead debut this week but his stats seem to point to a good finish here – 8th in GIR and terrific ball striking numbers. Tee-to-green there are few better – look for Stenson to build on his good effort last week.
2015 Valspar Championship Contenders:
Jim Furyk 20/1
Has been very good so far this season – top 15 finishes in all three events played. He has a good course history here as well- he won in 2010, lost in a playoff in 2012 and has top 20s in each of his last five trips. His accuracy will serve him well here as it did en route to a T12 last week at Doral.
Luke Donald 28/1
May have the best recent course history of anybody in the field – a winner in 2012 and T6 or better in his last four appearances including T4 in the last 2 editions. Donald was T7 at PGA National two weeks ago – a track very similar to Innisbrook. He wasn’t great at Doral but has been terrific here.
Graham DeLaet 33/1
One of the best ball strikers on TOUR, DeLaet is way overdue for a win – it may come on a track that suits his game very well.
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He is long and accurate with the driver and is a GIR machine. He has an 8th and a 17th place finish on this track and should do very well this week.
2015 Valspar Championship Sleepers (50/1 or higher):
Jason Dufner 50/1
Finished T49 last week after an opening round 79 – his last three rounds showed me something. Duf has a good history here – in 2010, he finished T28, 2011: T28, 2012: T10, 2013: T21 and T14 in 2014.He looked OK at the Honda finishing T17 a few weeks back so we know he is rounding into form. Gotta love Duf on a ball striker’s track – he may sneak up on a few this week!
Sang-Moon Bae 55/1
Finished T14 here last year and lost in a playoff in 2013 and has posted eight sub-par rounds in 12 attempts on this track. He has two wins and three other top 10 worldwide since October and has quietly been one of the more consistent guys around.
Will Mackenzie 66/1
Finished T6 in Puerto Rico last week and now has three top 10s in five starts during the wrap-around season. He has T4 here last year and is in the top 25 in driving accuracy (25th), greens in regulation (third) and strokes gained (second) – perfect attributes for this course. Mackenzie is nice value at 66/1 indeed.
2015 Valspar Championship Pick:
The pick this week is Jim Furyk at 20/1 – he has been money on this track and has been very good this year. If he is going to break out, it will be here where his precision shotmaking will be the difference.
The sleeper is Will Mackenzie at 66/1. A T4 here last year and a T6 last week in Peurto Rico has him firmly on my radar.
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