This Week’s PGA Tour Predictions!
The first Major of the year is upon us and there are certainly a ton of storylines ahead of the most anticipated early season tournament on the schedule. Will Rory be able to flex his muscle? Will Tiger be able to rediscover his long-lost form? Will Jimmy Walker continue his meteoric rise? Will Dustin Johnson continue to make a statement after his sabbatical?
2015 2015 Masters
When: April 9 – 12, 2015
Location: Augusta National Golf Club Augusta, GA USA
Defending Champion: Bubba Watson
Signature Hole: 13th Hole: 510 yards, par 5
Purse: US$8,000,000
***2015 BONUSES***
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Augusta National Golf Course is a par-72 layout that stretches out to 7,435 yards. It has four par 5s, four par 3s and 10 par 4s – as iconic a track as the Pros play year in and year out. Every hole offers some challenge but the formula for success, as in year past will be scoring on the par 5s and holding serve on the rest of the course. Augusta was the toughest par 72 the Pros played last year as it was the year before.
Length is obviously crucial – premier ball strikers and players that possess good GIR stats will rule the week. Par 4 scoring and an ability to find some success on the tough greens is also critical. Of course, course history has to factor into your research this week.
Rain is forecast this week making distance off the tee even more of a factor. With that said who should we keep an eye on? Let’s break it down.
The 2015 US Masters Favorites:
Rory McIlroy 11/2
Rory will be after a career Grand Slam this week and enters this week in just OK form. You have to know that all of his early season focus was on this week. That being said he is the rightful favorite. McIlroy has a T-9 and T-11 in his last two starts and he did finish T8 here last year. Rory will be in the hunt – my concern is that his pursuers are simply in better form right now.
Jordan Spieth 8/1
Spieth has been terrific this year –his last three starts have resulted in a playoff win at Innisbrook, a runner-up at San Antonio, and a tough playoff loss today at Houston.
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To make things more interesting he was T2 in his debut here last year. There is absolutely nobody hotter on the planet right now – his demeanor and overall game makes him a perfect match for Augusta this week.
Bubba Watson 10/1
Bubba has been on fire and on a track that rewards length he has to be in the conversation again this week. He has four top 15 finishes in his last four starts overall and is tops on TOUR in par 5 scoring and second in scrambling – perfect attributes for this track. Oh ya – he’s won two green jackets in the past! Present form and course history are definitely in Watson’s favor this week – hard to bet against him!
The 2015 US Masters Contenders:
Jason Day 14/1
Loves this track and is playing well right now – a win at the Farmers was followed by a T31 and T17 at the WGC and API respectively. Day has the perfect game to contend – huge off the tee, an ability to shape shots and a putter that looks out of this world at times. His game is well suited for this track – I just wish his present form was a tad crisper.
Dustin Johnson 16/1
Dustin always had the physical ability but what seems different about him this year is the mental side of his game. He has a win at Doral and three other top sixes in last five starts including a playoff loss at Riviera – amazing consistency right now. Length will be crucial in the potentially damp conditions this week and there are few better off the tee right now.
Henrik Stenson 18/1
Hard not to love Stenson right now except for the fact that he was forced to withdraw from the Shell Houston Open with illness. He has gone T4-4th-2nd in last three starts overall and has the length to make some noise in a tournament he hasn’t yet posted a top 10 in. He is tops on TOUR in adjusted scoring and if not still sick should be a factor.
Adam Scott 20/1
Won this event in 2013 and plans on bringing the long putter out of the closet this week. Confidence on the green seems to be all that was lacking in Scott’s game. Somehow he is a bit under-the-radar this week – a dangerous spot for one of the best all around players on the planet.
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Desperation and a lack of respect could all that Scott needs to get on the winning track this week.
Jimmy Walker 22/1
Walker may be the best value on the board right now. He dominated San Antonio a couple weeks back – a track very similar to Augusta – his second win this year. He is 21st in greens in regulation and third in strokes gained putting, sixth in adjusted scoring and fourth in par-5 scoring. Walker finished T8 in his only appearance here last year – his length and putting ability will certainly be assets on a damp Augusta track.
J.B. Holmes 40/1
Worth a mention after a win last week – his third top-two finish in last six starts. While I don’t love him to win two weeks in a row, I bring him up just to pat myself on the back after picking him at 25/1 in Houston.
The 2015 US Masters Sleepers (50/1 or higher):
Jim Furyk 55/1
Furyk at 55/1? He has missed the cut just twice in 18 appearances here and has finished top 33 in the other 16! He hasn’t been great lately and he isn’t especially long but Furyk is about as complete and professional guy as there is in the world of golf.
Hideki Matsuyama 66/1
There aren’t a whole lot of weaknesses in Matsuyama’s game – he has two top five finishes in his last five starts overall and two other top 25s over that span. You rarely see Hideki at 66/1 and although his course history here isn’t sterling, he has been one of the more solid guys on TOUR this year.
Paul Casey 66/1
Was a top 3 golfer in the world in 2009-2010 and has just rediscovered that form recently. He enters off a ninth at Houston and is fifth on TOUR this season in par 5 scoring. He has an OK history here too –although he missed the cut the last time he played here in 2012 he did have top 20 finishes in three straight Masters between 2007 and 2009.
Ian Poulter 80/1
Has six top 25s at Augusta including a T20 last year and has five top 25s in seven starts this season. Poulter always seems to show up on the biggest stages and could make a run at his first Major this week. His T12 ranking in par 4 scoring should help this week for sure.
The 2015 US Masters Picks:
In the deepest field of the year a pick was a tad difficult. I am going with value in this one – Jimmy Walker at 22/1 is my pick. He dominated in San Antonio last time out, he has two wins this year, he has three top 10s in Majors and his game is very well suited for this track.
The sleeper is Ian Poulter at 80/1. He has a knack of showing up in the big events.
At 80/1 I can’t resist.
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