PGA Golf Handicapping – Sony Open in Hawaii
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Location: Honolulu, Hawaii, United States
Course: Waialae Country Club
Date: Jan 9-12, 2014
Total Purse: US $ 5,600,000
Winner’s Share: US $ 1,008,000 (18% of total purse)
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Defending Champion: Russell Henley ($1,008,000)
The PGA Pros skip islands this week for the Sony Open – a tournament that saw a rookie steal the show last year at 24 under par. Needless to say, the winner of this year`s edition will have to go low on what was the easiest par 70 on TOUR last year – measuring just 7,044 yards. Greens in Regulation sat at 67.5% and the two very reachable Par 5s on the course averaged 4.35 – the easiest pair of Par 5s that the Pros will see this year.
Distance shouldn`t be an issue this week but then again it should have been last week when Zach Johnson bested the bombers on his way to a win at the Hyundai – didn`t see that one coming!
So who should we keep an eye on this week? Let`s break it down.
The Favorites:
Adam Scott 8/1
How good is Adam Scott – he didn’t play all that well and he still finished T6 last week. He will play this week and then take six weeks off on a track he finished T2 on in 2009. Scott is the class of the field once again this week – my guess is that he looks forward to his holiday and comes up just short.
Zach Johnson 10/1
Won this event in 2009 and enters this week scorching Hot – a win last week makes it three wins in his last six starts. Truth be told Johnson’s game suits the shortish Waialae track more than that of Kapalua. I don’t like picking the previous week’s winner but this is a case that justifies just that!
Matt Kuchar 14/1
Arguably the most consistent guy on TOUR has been good in the past in this event – consecutive T5s in his last two trips here. He is coming off a T6 at the Hyundai which speaks to his present form. Kuchar will always be in the hunt – the trick is picking the right time when he wins!
The Contenders:
Jordan Spieth 16/1
20 year old showed some moxy last week at the Hyundai and could have easily won the tournament. This is a guy who ranked inside the top 10 in par 4 scoring (1), par breakers (8) and proximity (7) last year and showed no signs of slowing down in his first event of 2014. He plays this track for the first time but his game is very well suited for a terrific finish here.
Charles Howell III 20/1
Has played this event 12 times and has made the cut in every one with seven top 5s along the way. He has played well so far in the wrap-around schedule – three top 7s already and looks prime to break out in his favorite event on TOUR.
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Jason Dufner 20/1
Dufs putter let him down last week – otherwise he would have seriously challenged Zach Johnson. There is absolutely zero doubt about his ball striking. He has just 2 top 25s in six starts here but those results before Dufner anointed himself as one of the world’s best. His strong iron play will come in handy here – not sure his putter is quite hot enough to go low enough to win.
Tim Clark 20/1
Has finished second in his last two appearances at the Sony – 2011 and 2013. He loves this track – proximity and fairways hit are his strength and a must on this track. Clark had a second as recently as November at the McGladrey so we know he is in decent form for a potential breakthrough at this event.
Harris English 25/1
Harris does extremely well on tight tracks and that’s what Waialae is. He finished T9 here last year and enters this year off a tidy T11 at Kapalua last week. English learned how to win the last year and could be a sneaky 25/1 this at the Sony.
Chris Kirk 28/1
Looked OK last week before fading badly but Kirk has looked good at the Sony in the past – 3/3 with a T5 last year in this event. He has all the skills to make a run this week and proved that he could win at the 2013 McGladrey Classic.
Hideki Matsuyama 40/1
Somebody that appears poised to break through at some time this season –he won four times all together last year and will win on the bigger stages at some point. Maybe not this week.
The Sleepers (50/1 or higher)
Rory Sabbatini 50/1
Has played very well in this event with a pair of runner-up finishes plus he looked good at the very end of 2013 – a T3 in Mayakoba. Rory is known as a very good wind player and could make some noise.
Jeff Overton 66/1
Has played decent golf this year – four top 25s in five starts to begin 2013-14. He played well here last year – a solo eighth and is an intriguing 66/1.
The Pick:
For the second straight week I will make an unsexy pick. Zach Johnson at 10/1 odds has three wins in six starts – just too hot to pass up on a track made for his skills.
My sleeper is Rory Sabbatini at 50/1. He’s played well here and may get a little karma paid back this week.
