Canadian Open Prediction
The RBC Canadian Open comes our way from Montreal this weekend – a week after a terrific British Open reminded us of the brilliance of Rory McIlroy.
2014 RBC Canadian Open
Location: Ile Bizard, Quebec, Canada
Course: Royal Montreal GC (Blue Course)
Date: Jul 24-27, 2014
Total Purse: US $ 5,700,000
Winner’s Share: US $ 1,080,000 (19% of total purse)
Defending Champion: Brandt Snedeker ($1,008,000)
Golf Odds from Bovada
Traditionally a lightly attended event because of the unfavorable slot on the schedule, this year`s Open boasts a decent lineup.
Royal Montreal (Blue Course) hosts this year`s Canadian Open – it was also the site of the 2007 President`s Cup.
Royal Montreal is a 7,153 yard par-70 layout with a pair of par 5s and four par 3s – par 4 scoring average absolutely has to be a consideration here. Distance off the tee won`t be essential but regular stats like Greens In Regulation, Strokes Gained-Putting, Par Breakers and Par 4 Scoring average will be important.
However there isn`t any particular style of game that suits this track – it could be a wide open affair.
With that in mind let`s take a look at some of the players to watch this week.
The Favorites:
Dustin Johnson 12/1
Looked good at the Open last week but fell back to a respectable T12. This could be a good sign or it could mean that a hangover is imminent. Johnson does have a history of falling flat after the majors so watch out. But Gretzky`s future son-in-law should be prime for a big week in the land the Gretzky owns!
Jim Furyk 12/1
Has won this event twice (2006 and 2007) and is coming off a terrific fourth place finish at The Open. He has three top 5s on the season and has finished top 20 in nine of his last 10 starts – impressive. He is as deserving of a win as anyone in the field and could get it here. He is a master tee to green – if his putter shows up this week he could win his third Canadian Open!
Matt Kuchar 12/1
Finished T2 in this event last year but has struggled overall as of late – zero top 10s in his last five starts. He is too good to have a streak like that – expect a bounce back sooner than later.
The Contenders:
Graeme McDowell 16/1
Has been terrific as of late – a T6 in Ireland, a win in France and a T9 last week at The Open. He should be extra-motivated this week to make it two straight Opens that a player from Northern Ireland has captured. Leads the PGA TOUR in SGP – always a good stat to have in your back pocket.
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Charl Schwartzel 18/1
Finished a very good T7 at The Open last week and has six top 20s in his last 10 starts. His ball striking has come on of late – his greens in regulation stat isn`t exactly where it needs to be to be a consistent threat. Still, with a good effort last week, Schwartzel could be prime for another good result this week.
Brandt Snedeker 22/1
The defending champ would love this event to be back at Glen Abbey but it’s not. He looked as though he had been snapping an unflattering skid before a T58 at THE OPEN last week – he had three straight top 25s including at T9 at the US Open before The British. Sneds is very difficult to figure out right now – I simply can`t trust him.
Luke Donald 22/1
Finished second at the RBC Heritage and has the game that could contend on this shorter track. One stat that stands out? He is 140th on TOUR in par 4 scoring – not good. Donald is a top guy and always shows up in RBC events but his current form has me scared off this week.
Graham DeLaet 25/1
How about a little Canadian content! DeLaet is the TOUR leader in ball striking and will have the weight of a nation on his shoulders this week. He has eight top 20s this season but the last came three months ago. On paper, he is a contender but the added pressure and the current form have me looking elsewhere.
Hunter Mahan 28/1
Was my pick last year but shamelessly withdrew with the lead after two rounds when his wife went into labor! Selfish! Mahan`s name alone makes him a contender but his present form certainly isn`t all that flattering. He last finished inside the top 10 at Doral! Mahan is a man that absolutely needs a strong bounce back – this week could be it!
Charley Hoffman 35/1
Has quietly been playing very well – five straight top 20s including a T3 at Congressional. He is in the top 10 in GIR, Par Breakers and Par 4 Scoring Average – perfect attributes for this track. Hoffman is bound to post a victory some time – against a wide open field this week may be his best chance.
David Hearn 45/1
The other Canadian in the field may be Canada`s best chance based on current form. He is coming off a T32 at The Open in a tournament he looked to have a top 20 sewn up. He also had a T6 at THE PLAYERS a couple of months back as well. He was solid tee to green last week and his iron play has stood out so far this year. If he can play anywhere close to what he did last week, Hearn has a real chance!
The Sleepers (50/1 or higher):
Carl Pettersson 50/1
Won the Canadian Open in 2010 and was T3 recently at TPC Southwind and T7 at TPC River Highlands. Pettersson ranks T24 in par 4 scoring which is essential here. He has been trending upward and could be a factor this week.
K.J. Choi 66/1
Choi looks like some decent value here although he has missed the cut in his last two starts. Prior to that however was a T2 at the Travelers on a similar course to this one and he had a T13 at THE PLAYERS as well. Choi is one of a handful of players with a history on this track (he played well here in the 2007 President`s Cup) and he is still top 25 on TOUR in strokes gained putting.
Tim Clark 66/1
Was last seen finishing T5 at TPC Deere Run and has three top 20s in his last six starts. On a fairly short, tight track, Clarke could thrive – he is also third on TOUR in fairways hit and first in proximity to the hole. The shorter and tighter the track the more I like Clark – this week is no exception.
William Mcgirt 66/1
Has finished T2 in the Canadian Open two straight years – he obviously love the Canadian air! His last three TOUR starts have resulted in a T31-MC-T23 stretch – not bad not great. But somehow this guy contends in Canada – to not mention his is to not be a true follower of this event.
The Pick:
It`s pretty hard not to go with Jim Furyk at 12/1 – so I won`t! He has won this event twice, his current form is terrific and his consistency makes him worthy of a win.
My sleeper is Tim Clark at 66/1. You simply can`t count this guy out on this type of track. His present form is very good making him a very intriguing long shot this week.
