PGA Golf Handicapping – Hyundai Tournament of Champions
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The PGA TOUR will be back in full swing starting this Friday at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions – a Win and You’re In event that pits last year’s champions up against each other.
2014 Hyundai Tournament of Champions
Friday Jan 3 – Monday Jan 6, 2014
Plantation Course at Kapalua, Kapalua, Maui, HI
Purse: $5,700,000
Winning Share: $1,140,000
FedExCup Points: 500
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30 of the 35 winners from 46 tournaments will battle it out on the Plantation Course at Kapalua where winds were the story last year – shortening the tournament to 54 holes before finally awarding Dustin Johnson the win.
Kapalua is the only Par 73 that the players will see this year – it is long (7,452 yards) but its greens are among the largest on TOUR – the players hit the greens a staggering 80% of the time last year! Bombers have an advantage here – the Par 5s are reachable for the big hitters but as always a hot putter will be essential to claim victory this week.
So who should we watch out for? let’s break it down.
The Favorites:
Adam SCOTT 11/2
Scott is the class of this field for sure. He was sensational during his tour of Australia – a second at the Aussie Open and a third at the World Cup of Golf included. He has one second place finish on this track to go along with a few top 10s but never has he entered with the form he is sporting now. Scott is a beast and should be in the mix Sunday.
Dustin JOHNSON 8/1
Defending champion here and also had a win at the WGC-HSBC Championship last year. His distance alone makes his a contender – last year he ranked second in driving distance, 18th in par breakers, 21st in par-4 birdie or better percentage and sixth in proximity from the fairway on TOUR. The question this week will be his putter.
Matt KUCHAR 8/1
Won twice last year and emerged as one of the most consistent guys on TOUR. He has finished as high as third here but his main knock is his distance off the tee. That said his putter and irons make up for any short-comings.
The Contenders:
Webb SIMPSON 9/1
Finished T3 here in 2012. He had a win in Vegas and a fourth at East Lake and quietly put together a good season last year. Simpson would love nothing more than to start his season off right this weekend.
Zach JOHNSON 12/1
Finished off 2013 with a bang – two wins and another six top 10s. He has only on top 15 in six tries on this track however – a T6 and lacks the power to be considered a real contender here.
Brandt SNEDEKER 14/1
Plays for the first time since a ridiculous injury – a fall from a Segway in China two months ago. The up-and-down nature of this course will be a test but Sneds has the all around game minus the driving distance to make some noise here.
Ryan MOORE 16/1
Has been playing well of late – four top 11 finishes in his last six starts and he has fared well on this track in the past – a T6 in 2010 and a T28 in 2013.
Harris ENGLISH 18/1
First-timer at Kapalua and already has a win on this wrap-around schedule – OHL Classic at Mayakoba. He’s a tremendously skilled guy but his lack of rounds on this tricky track could hold him back.
Jason DUFNER 20/1
Finished T18 here last year and looked great toward the end of 2013. Duf has the distance and all around game to get it done – his inconsistent putter will determine a lot.
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Bill HAAS 22/1
Will play this event for the fourth straight time but his results have gotten worse every time out – an 8th (2011), 20th (2012), T23 (2013). His game doesn’t quite suit this track – best look elsewhere!
Jordan SPIETH 22/1
Another first timer will likely have his share of problems the first round or two but Spieth is a beast and could surprise.
Martin LAIRD 25/1
Scotsman has played very well in this event and quietly may be the best value on the board. He was T4 in 2010 and solo second in 2012 and finished T20 in his last start – the World Cup of Golf. He wouldn’t even be worth mentioning if not for his stellar record on this course but there is something about Kapalua that brings the best out in Laird.
Chris KIRK 25/1
won the McGladrey Classic title in the fall of 2013 and he did have a T7 here in 2012. But he welcomed his second child a couple of weeks ago – something that seems to throw golfers off their game for a couple of months.
Jimmy WALKER 28/1
Yet another first timer Walker had his best year as a Pro last year – his form and strengths seem to be a good fit for this track. I don’t love rookies on this course but I do think Walker, if any will be in the conversation Sunday.
Gary WOODLAND 28/1
Bomber Gary Woodland should thrive on a LONG course with forgiving fairways. The question mark, like so many will be his putter. His only start here was a 24th place finish – something that should be eclipsed this week.
Billy HORSCHEL 33/1
First trip here. Horschel was terrific in the first half of 2013 but really fell off toward the end – reason enough for me to stay away. His stats seem to line up well here – his present form doesn’t.
The Sleepers(50/1 or higher):
Russell HENLEY 50/1
First timer here already has a win in Hawaii – the Sony Open so the conditions won’t be nearly as big a deal as the rest of the rookies on this course. He has the power, the putting and the ability to convert birdies to contend here.
Sang-Moon BAE 100/1
Won the HP Byron Nelson Championship but failed to register a top 30 the rest of the PGA season. He certainly has all the attributes to succeed here and at 100/1 he may be worth a sprinkle.
The Pick:
It ain’t sexy or surprising but Adam Scott at 11/2 is my pick this week. While many of the field was enjoying some relaxing time with the family, Scott was busy building up the bank account. He is in mid-season form already and it is January! He makes a big statement on a course that should be Taylor-made for him.
My Sleeper is Russell Henley at 50/1. His all around game and especially his distance off the tee makes him an intriguing long shot this week.
