Byron Nelson Betting
The PGA pros head to Irving, Texas this week to play the 2014 HP Byron Nelson Championship at TPC at Four Seasons. The par 70, 7,166 yard track will offer just two par 5s and therefore limited chances for the bombers to score.
2014 HP Byron Nelson Championship
Location: Irving, Texas, United States
Course: TPC at Four Seasons
Date: May 15-18, 2014
Total Purse: US $ 6,900,000
Winner’s Share: US $ 1,206,000 (17% of total purse)
Golf Odds from Bovada
Defending Champion: Sang-moon Bae ($1,206,000)
A slightly watered down field will tee it up this week – accuracy rather than length will be rewarded – fairways are notoriously difficult to hit making putting stats essential in order to challenge. Strokes gained putting is important as is Par 4 scoring average (there are 12 par 4s on the course). TPC at Four Seasons was the fourth toughest non-major Par 70 on TOUR last year.
Three of the last four champions here have been first time TOUR winners – will history repeat itself or should we be looking at a former TOUR Champion this week? Let`s break it down.
The Favorites:
Jordan Spieth 12/1
Home town boy played very well in the pressure cooker tournaments THE PLAYERS and the Masters but was unable to bring either title home. He has played this event three times but hasn’t registered a top 15 yet. Motivation in front of his home town crowd could be a factor – exhaustion after a long string of pressure tourneys could be as well!
Matt Kuchar 12/1
Won the RBC Heritage a couple of weeks ago and was last seen finishing 17th at THE PLAYERS last week. He had been a top 5 machine before that result. He has never missed a cut on this track in six starts and has two top 15s over that span – the best being a T6 in 2011. It’s pretty hard to bet against Kuch in a less-than-spectacular field!
Martin Kaymer 18/1
Has been very good the last month or so punctuated by a win at THE PLAYERS – a T23-T18 was followed by that win last week. He has played this event just once – a T5 last year and enters this week in better overall form. The only thing in his way is the unlikelihood of anyone winning two weeks in a row on TOUR – it is rare that it happens.
The Contenders:
Jimmy Walker 20/1
Keeps chugging along – he finished T6 at THE PLAYERS after a wonderful 65 on Sunday. That makes 10 top 25s in his last 12 starts! Walker leads the PGA TOUR in strokes gained and is fourth in par 4 scoring average – perfect attributes for a good finish this week. He has never finished inside the top 20 here but you can certainly expect that streak to end this week.
Keegan Bradley 20/1
Won this event in 2011 and finished, was T24 in 2012 and second here last year – shooting a course record 60 in the process. His present form scares me a little here but his course history is certainly eye-opening.
Charl Schwartzel 22/1
Finished third here last year in his only appearance but his current form, like Bradley’s isn’t all that great.
Dustin Johnson 25/1
Has fallen off a bit lately but had a T20 in 2011, a T4 in 2009 and T7 in 2010. DJ is capable of breaking out at any time but on a tight track, I don’t love his chances of breaking a slump this week.
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Graham DeLaet 33/1
Love this guy but he has been letting me down! Just win already!
Harris English 40/1
Actually missed the cut at the Masters and THE PLAYERS. He has played well outside of the major stops this year and he did have a T17 here last year so hopes are he rises to the occasion in a non-major yet again.
Jason Dufner 40/1
Where has Jason Dufner gone? I had him as my sleeper last week – he was sitting at 66/1 odds. Despite the lack of noise coming from Duf he does have four top 15s on TOUR this year. He won here in 2012 after a T8 in 2011 and finished T33 last year. He is due to break out sometime – I just wish it was sooner rather than later.
Ryan Palmer 40/1
Texas boy has played well here – he lost in a playoff in 2011 and was T9 in 2012. He has posted some good results on TOUR this year as well – a loss in a playoff at the Honda and a T7 at Houston. Palmer loves his home games and could be a factor here.
The Sleepers (50/1 or higher):
Marc Leishman 50/1
Loves the wind – that’s what’s expected this week. He has four starts here and four top 15s and he is coming off a respectable T23 at THE PLAYERS. Leishman is playing some decent golf ahead of his favorite TOUR stop.
Brian Stuard 66/1
His stats – inside top 25 in par-3, par-4 and par-5 scoring – suggest a good finish here this week. He has had some decent results on TOUR as well recently – a T5 at Harbour Town and T17 at TPC Sawgrass.
Ryo Ishikawa 66/1
Has quietly put together a nice season on TOUR – three top 10s and another five top 25s. He finished T10 in his only start here – last year and may be due for a breakout this week.
Justin Hicks 80/1
Super Sleeper time! He finished T17 at THE PLAYERS last week – his eighth straight cut made and has a T14 and a T21 in his last two trips to TPC at Four Seasons. His stats line up well for a good showing as well – fourth in GIR, 10th in ball-striking, 44th in SGP and 46th in par 4 scoring average. If you are in a gambling mood – look no further than MR. Hicks.
The Pick:
I was waffling between Texas boy Jordan Spieth but I am going with Keegan Bradley at 20/1. It`s pretty hard to argue with his track record here – he shot a course record 60 in the first round last year. His form is sketchy but a hunch has me thinking Bradley breaks out of his slump.
My Sleeper is a deep one – Justin Hicks at 80/1 could offer a nice payday. Last week he led the field in greens in regulation (56) and finished second in putting inside 10 feet (62-for-65).
