Honda Classic Betting
The PGA pros begin their Florida swing this week when PGA National Resort & Spa’s Champion Course hosts The Honda Classic which turned out to be the most difficult par 70 track the Pros played last year.
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, United States
Course: PGA National Resort and Spa – Champion Course
Date: Feb 27 – Mar 2, 2014
Total Purse: US $ 6,000,000
Winner’s Share: US $ 1,080,000 (18% of total purse)
Golf Odds from Bovada
Defending Champion: Michael Thompson ($1,080,000)
Hitting greens is notoriously tough, scrambling numbers hover around 50% and even par is a good score at PGA National – the most difficult test outside of a Major these players will see this year.
The Bear Trap looms – holes 15, 16 and 17 are as tough a test as there is in golf. Players will need to hit fairways, find greens and score with the limited chances they will be presented.
Rory, Tiger, Adam and Phil will all tee it up this week. Will one of them walk away with the Title or is there another Michael Thompson (last year’s winner) in the field? Let’s break it down
The Favorites:
Rory McIlroy 8/1
Won this tourney in 2012 and has been ramping up his game as of late – five straight top 10s in stroke play events around the world before a second round exit at the match play last week. While Rory is showing signs of his Stud status it may be a tad early to give him the nod against such a tough field.
Tiger Woods 8/1
Finished second here behind Rory in 2012 and finished T37 the other time he played here. He hasn’t recorded a top 10 in his last four events played – a slump by Tiger’s standards. There are certainly hotter players right now – I’m staying away from Tiger too.
Adam Scott 16/1
Has been predictably good lately – T8 or better in his last six starts but he missed the cut in this tourney in his only appearance. Still, counting out Adam is a mistake even though his limited history here isn’t great.
The Contenders:
Charl Schwartzel 20/1
Has three appearances at PGA National and 3 top 15s – a T14 (2011), T5 (2012) and a T9 (2013). He did lose in the second round of the match play last week but had a T5 at Riviera the week before that. Schwartzel loves this track and is in decent form ahead of this week.
Sergio Garcia 20/1
Has quietly been on fire – winning two of his last four starts worldwide and recording six top 10s in his last 10 starts overall. He has made three cuts on this track with the best result being a T13 in 2009. Although his history here isn’t great, Sergio’s present form is terrific.
Graeme McDowell 22/1
Played very well at the match-play last week and gets to play on a track he’s had some success at – top 10s in his last three starts and no worse than a T17 in six starts in his career here. He has also started 2014 very well with two top 10s in two events played. McDowell is a threat every time he tees it up at PGA National – this week is no different.
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Justin Rose 25/1
Is another player that doesn’t mind the challenge of PGA National – Top 5 or better in his last three trips – a T3 in 2010, a T5 in 2012 and a T4 in 2013. His current form has to be questioned though – a T45 in the Northern Trust two weeks ago and a second round loss last week has me scared off a little. His shoulder issues look to be behind him – no better place to get back on top than in an event he loves.
Zach Johnson 25/1
Has become one of the most consistent guys on TOUR – recording top 10s in 10 of his last 13 starts but he hasn’t had a whole lot of success here – a T30 in 2008 was his last result at PGA National. However – a look at his stats create a little optimism – he leads TOUR in fairways hit; third in GIR, 25th in SGP, 12th in ball-striking and second in par 3 scoring average.
Keegan Bradley 28/1
Finished T4 here last year and T12 in 2012 but is coming off a first round exit at the Match-Play. He already has three top 20s in 2014 and seems poised to break out. He is 25th in the all-around and sixth in scrambling and sits ninth in par 3 scoring average, which bodes well at the Bear Trap. Keegan could make some noise!
Rickie Fowler 28/1
Surprised the field last week by finishing third and has a decent history on this track – a T7 at PGA National in 2012 and a T13 last year. He hadn’t been great this year before last week – his putter has been awful thus far.
Hideki Matsuyama 33/1
Has been decent and is poised to break through – six straight top 25s but makes his first appearance at PGA National. He sits sixth in adjusted scoring and looks like one of those guys that could break through this year.
The Sleepers (50/1 or higher):
Lee Westwood 50/1
Has had some success on this track – three top 10s in his last four trips and finished T9 last year. Westy seems to save his best for the tough tracks and this one qualifies for sure.
Luke Donald 50/1
Another guy that plays well here – solo second (2008) and a T10 (2011) in his only two appearances. He hasn’t been great lately but could snap out of his funk at PGA National.
Michael Thompson 66/1
Defending champion is getting no love here. He has top 20s in his last two starts and is sixth in fairways hit, 26th in strokes gained-putting on TOUR making him an intriguing 66/1.
Fredrik Jacobson 100/1
Finished T5 in 2009 and T6 in 2010 here and is 6-for-6 on this track finishing in the top 30 each and every time. His game is well suited for this track and is the best value on the board this week.
The Pick:
My pick this week enters off a very good showing at the Match-Play and has been very good this year. Track history has me leaning Graeme McDowell at 22/1 this week. He is certainly trending upward and he has shown great form at PGA National in the past.
My sleeper is Fredrik Jacobson at 100/1. His results on this track absolutely have to be accounted for – as does his status as a fan favorite here.
