Greenbrier Classic Prediction
The PGA Pros move on to The Old White TPC and the Greenbrier Classic – an event won by Jonas Blixt last year when he finished the tournament outside the top 40 in distance off the tee, fairways hit and greens in regulation.
2014 Greenbrier Classic
Location: White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia, United States
Course: Greenbrier – The Old White Course
Date: Jul 3-6, 2014
Total Purse: US $ 6,500,000
Winner’s Share: US $ 1,134,000 (17% of total purse)
Defending Champion: Jonas Blixt ($1,134,000)
Golf Odds from Bovada
The Old White TPC will play 7,287 yards on its par-70 layout, with two par 5s, four par 3s and 12 par 4s. Stuart Appleby, Scott Stallings, Ted Potter Jr. and Blixt have won the last four Greenbriers – not exactly the who’s who of professional golf!
Driving accuracy for once won’t have a ton to do with the eventual winner – distance is a nice attribute but not crucial either on the third easiest par 70s the Pros played last year. Par 4 scoring average looks to be the most important stat ahead of this week – putting as always will carry players a long was as always. Scrambling and a player’s short game will have to shine if one hopes to emerge this week.
I am looking at under the radar players this week – the Greenbrier has been the scene of breakthrough performances in the recent past. With that said here is a look at some of the names to watch this week as many play their tune-up for the British Open in a couple of weeks time.
The Favorites:
Bubba Watson 12/1
Watson was certainly disappointing last week finishing T31 as favorite at the Travelers. He has two wins, two seconds and a third in 2014 but the results were early on in the year. He had a T30 in his only appearance here – I just don’t trust him.
Jimmy Walker 12/1
Took some time off after a T9 at Pinehurst. He’s finished T4 or better three times in four years at this event and has scored top 10s in his last two PGA TOUR starts. He has three wins on the season and has a terrific record on this track. Walker is truly on the radar this week – watch out.
Webb Simpson 20/1
Has two top 10s in four starts at this venue. Of concern is not the T3 at the FedEx St. Jude but it is the fact it was followed by a T45 and a T30 in his last two outings. Simpson has the game and the track record to contend here – he’s just been a bit inconsistent for me.
The Contenders:
Bill Haas 22/1
Lost in a playoff in 2011 here and finished T9 last year. Haas hasn’t exactly been lighting it up this year but he has yet to miss the cut and seems on the cusp of breaking out. He wasn’t good in his title defense at Congressional – he should be motivated to go this week.
Brendon Todd 22/1
Has quietly put together quite a nice run – he’s the hottest guy, believe it or not, on TOUR. Todd has breakthrough win, two T5s, T8 and a T17 (U.S. Open) in his last five starts – impressive indeed. His only start here was a T46 in 2012 but his present form can’t be ignored.
Steve Stricker 28/1
Finished T22 here in 2012 but has been good in his limited starts – three straight top 25 finishes including a T21 at Pinehurst. In a watered down field Stricker is a candidate for a breakout.
Kevin Na 30/1
Hasn’t played since a respectable T12 at the US Open which followed a playoff loss at Memorial. He finished T7 at Greenbrier in 2012 and had a T36 here the year before. Na has been in seemingly every tournament he has played lately and is an intriguing 30/1.
Brendon De Jonge 33/1
Is coming off a T8 at Congressional and is enjoying a streak of eight straight cuts made. He has two top fours in this event (’10-’11) and tied for 17th last year. Interesting.
Marc Leishman 33/1
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Has been in the conversation of all of his last six starts – he has finished top 25 in all six. Leishman has finished T11 and T8 the last two but hasn’t been great at Greenbrier – a T16 in 2010 was his best result. But in a tournament prone to a breakout performance – Leishman could be the guy!
Ben Martin 40/1
Marin has quietly put together a pretty good run – he has three third place finishes on the season including Congressional and Harbour Town. He has made the cut in seven straight tournaments and is definitely trending upward.
Brendan Steele 40/1
Is really coming on – T5s in the last two tournaments including the Travelers and the Quicken Loans. On the topic of a breakout performance – Steele is on that list.
Patrick Reed 40/1
I anyone rooting for this guy? He stumbled down the stretch but finished a respectable T11 at Congressional after failing to live up to his self-inflicted hype. A taste of the top may just what he needs – confidence certainly isn’t the issue!
The Sleepers (50/1 or higher):
Daniel Summerhays 50/1
Has been OK lately but gets a crack on a course he’s done well at – a fifth (2012) and T9 (2013). He has just a T28 and a T30 in his last two starts but looks prime to make something happen.
Jonas Blixt 50/1
Won here last year but has been off the radar since.
Nick Watney 50/1
His class alone makes him a contender. I just wish his present form matched up with his pedigree.
The Pick:
The pick this week is Jimmy Walker at 12/1. The FedEx Cup Points leader has been playing very well lately and has a terrific history on this track. I looked hard at a breakout performer but kept coming back to the obvious choice!
The Sleepers is Daniel Summerhays at 50/1. He’s played very well at Greenbrier and looks to be on the cusp of something special. Call it a hunch!
