PGA Betting – U.S. Open Preview & Pick
The second major of 2011 returns to the Blue Course at Congressional for the first time since 1997. As you’d expect from a U.S. Open track, hitting fairways, scrambling and avoiding bogeys are crucial. A score around even par always has a chance to win.
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LAST WEEK: OK, so I got a bit cocky. I won on a hunch with Steve Stricker and got a little cute by picking Sergio Garcia to win the FedEx St. Jude Classic. He missed the cut. I’ll try to do at least a little homework before making my U.S. Open pick.
Date: Thursday June 16 – 19, 2011
Event: U.S. Open Championship
Course: Congressional Country Club, Bethesda, Maryland
Purse: $7,500,000
Defending Champ: Graeme McDowell
Winning Share: $1,350,000
FedEX Cup Points Up For Grabs: 600
THE CONTENDERS
Rory McIlroy
U.S. Open odds: +1000
Sure, he collapsed at the Masters, but he’s a young guy. Still feels like it’s only a matter of time before Rory gets his first major. I don’t think that will happen this weekend, though. His putting isn’t where it needs to be and his accuracy stats – greens and driving – are so-so.
Luke Donald
U.S. Open odds: +1200
I still can’t fault anyone for picking Donald to win every week. He’s been the Tour’s best player this season, with a victory and 10 straight top 10s to his name. Donald is 12th in fairways, sixth in putting and third in bogey avoidance. Driving distance isn’t at a premium this week, so Donald has an excellent chance to win.
Phil Mickelson
U.S. Open odds: +1200
I like Phil’s game for this week; his scrambling is on the rise and he’s done a nice job hitting greens on his approaches. He’s a five-time runner up but I see that as a negative. He’s been in contention five times and has failed to close the door five times. There’s some kind of mental block preventing Lefty from winning this particular major.
Lee Westwood
U.S. Open odds: +1200
Westwood is warming up, with six straight top-11 finishes worldwide. That streak includes two wins and a playoff loss. He looked solid at Memphis his last time out, cracking the top 10 in the field in greens and putting. But I still get the Monty feeling from Westwood at majors. He’s flirted with glory but can’t seem to get over the hump on U.S. soil.
SOLID PICKS
Dustin Johnson
U.S. Open odds: +1800
We can’t count out big Dustin Johnson. He collapsed after leading through 54 holes at last year’s U.S. Open but he hasn’t looked like a guy scarred form that experience since then. Johnson hasn’t sizzled this year but he’s been solid. He was fourth his last time out and he has the accuracy on his approaches to match his booming drives.
Steve Stricker
U.S. Open odds: +1800
Obviously, Stricker has the right game for this tournament. He has the velvet putting stroke and nobody bogeys less often per 18 holes. But there’s just something about Stricker in majors. He hasn’t had a top-10 finish at the U.S. Open since 1999. I’d love to see him finally win the big one but I just don’t know if he has the nerves to do it.
Matt Kuchar
U.S. Open odds: +2000
In terms of peripherals, Kuchar could be the most rock solid across the board. He’s polished and sturdy in every category – fairways, greens, putting, bogey avoidance. He’s also played consistently well, posting eight top-10s and making every cut in 14 events this year. There are few safer picks to at least be in the hunt on the weekend.
K.J. Choi
U.S. Open odds: +2000
It’s too bad that Choi doesn’t have sleeper odds, as I like him this week. He’s quietly a good scrambler who doesn’t bogey too many holes. His game has been pretty decent this year; he has a win and five top-10s. He also won the 2007 AT&T National at Congressional.
THE SLEEPER
Graeme McDowell
U.S. Open odds: +5000
I have to put McDowell’s name on this list. He’s the defending champ, for cryin’ out loud. However, other than last year’s success, McDowell doesn’t look like a great play this week. Even he would tell you that. He said he tried the Blue Course six weeks ago and found it “brutal.” Mentally, he isn’t in the right place.
THE PICK
So many good, young golfers appear on the verge of breaking through and winning this week. Donald, Johnson and Kuchar all stand out to me. But the young guns will still feel the pressure on the big stage. I like the more obscure Choi to sneak up on the field. He has the nerves, he has the game and he won’t feel the heat like some of the other high-profile contenders will.
U.S. Open pick: K.J. Choi +2000
2011 2011 US Open – Odds to Win – Updated Betting Odds
Lee Westwood 11/1
Luke Donald 12/1
Phil Mickelson 14/1
Rory McIlroy 16/1
Martin Kaymer 25/1
Steve Stricker 25/1
Hunter Mahan 25/1
Matt Kuchar 25/1
Nick Watney 25/1
Dustin Johnson 25/1
K.J. Choi 28/1
Jason Day 40/1
Bubba Watson 40/1
Graeme McDowell 45/1
David Toms 50/1
Jim Furyk 50/1
Adam Scott 50/1
Padraig Harrington 50/1
Robert Karlsson 50/1
Ian Poulter 50/1
Charl Schwartzel 50/1
Paul Casey 66/1
Geoff Ogilvy 66/1
Matteo Manassero 66/1
Sergio Garcia 66/1
Justin Rose 66/1
Aaron Baddeley 66/1
Rickie Fowler 66/1
Retief Goosen 50/1
Lucas Glover 66/1
Francesco Molinari 66/1
Ernie Els 66/1
Angel Cabrera 66/1
Zach Johnson 66/1
Ricky Barnes
Jonathan Byrd 80/1
Stewart Cink 80/1
Bill Haas 80/1
Ryan Moore 80/1
Alvaro Quiros 80/1
Gary Woodland 80/1
Y-E Yang 100/1
Martin Laird 100/1
Webb Simpson 100/1
Robert Allenby 100/1
Anthony Kim 100/1
Louis Oosthuizen 125/1
Ryan Palmer 125/1
Edoardo Molinari 125/1
Rory Sabbatini 100/1
Steve Marino
Ben Crane 125/1
Bo Van Pelt 125/1
Peter Hanson 125/1
Miguel Angel Jimenez 125/1
Jeff Overton 125/1
Ross Fisher
Trevor Immelman 125/1
Camilo Villegas 80/1
Mark Wilson 125/1
Charley Hoffman 150/1
Davis Love III 150/1
Alexander Noren 150/1
Kevin Na 150/1
Seung-yul Noh 150/1
Fred Couples
Chad Campbell 125/1
Tim Clark
Johan Edfors 175/1
Brandt Jobe 175/1
D-A Points 175/1
Ryo Ishikawa 175/1
Anders Hansen 175/1
Shane Lowry 175/1
Kevin Streelman 175/1
Marc Leishman 175/1
Gregory Havret 175/1
Greg Chalmers 175/1
Nicolas Colsaerts 175/1
Chez Reavie 175/1
Kyung-Tae Kim 200/1
Henrik Stenson 200/1
Stephen Gallacher 200/1
Robert Rock 200/1
Tim Petrovic 200/1
Kevin Chappell 400/1
Scott Piercy 400/1
Thomas Levet 400/1
David Howell 400/1
Maarten Lafeber 400/1
Harrison Frazar 200/1
Briny Baird 400/1
Hiroyuki Fujita 400/1
William Cauley
Scott Pinckney 1000/1
Christopher Deforest 1000/1
Steven Irwin 1000/1
Chris WIlliams 750/1
Marc Turnesa 500/1
Kirk Triplett 500/1
Michael Putnam 500/1
Sam Saunders 500/1
Sunghoon Kang 500/1
Todd Hamilton 500/1
Justin Hicks 500/1
Fred Funk 500/1
Scott Hend 500/1
Michael Campbell 500/1
Do-Hoon Kim 500/1
Kenichi Kuboya 500/1
Jon Mills 750/1
Bubba Dickerson 750/1
Peter Uihlein 750/1
Marcel Siem 750/1
Brett Patterson 1000/1
Matthew Edwards 1000/1
Michael Barbosa 1000/1
Adam Long 1000/1
David May 1000/1
Will Wilcox 1000/1
Chris Wilson 1000/1
Michael Smith 1000/1
Geoffrey Sisk 1000/1
Matthew Richardson 1000/1
Alexandre Rocha 1000/1
Joey Lamielle 1000/1
Andreas Harto 1000/1
Jesse Hutchins 1000/1
Elliot Gealy 1000/1
Wes Heffernan 1000/1
Andres Gonzales 1000/1
Russell Henley 1000/1
Adam Hadwin 1000/1
David Chung 1000/1
Robert Dinwiddie 1000/1
Brad Benjamin 1000/1
Scott Barr 1000/1
Brian Locke 1500/1
Michael Tobiason Jr. 1500/1
Beau Hossler 1500/1
Ty Tryon 1500/1
Cheng-Tsung Pan 1500/1
Christo Greyling 1500/1
John Ellis 1500/1
Bennet Blakeman 1500/1
Brandt Snedeker 50/1
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About Shea Matthews
