PGA Betting – Transitions Championship Preview & Pick
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LAST WEEK: We were never close with Bill Haas last week. He opened with a 74 and was never really in it, labouring his way to a 31st-place finish. As a result, I’m tempted to go with a bigger name this week. We’ll see.
Supporting my hunch is that three of last four winners of the Transitions Championship have been 39 or older. The par-71 Copperhead played tough last year. It boasts five par-3s. Successful golfers need to make birdies or at least avoid bogeys there – so greens in regulation and putting are major assets.
THIS WEEK’S PGA BETTING
Date: March 17 – 20
Event: Transitions Championship
Course: Innisbrook Resort – Copperhead, Palm Harbor, Florida
Purse: $5,500,000
Defending Champ: Jim Furyk
Winning Share: $972,000
FedEX Cup Points Up For Grabs: 500
THE ELITE
Martin Kaymer
Transitions Championship odds: +1015
Kaymer has played up to his world No. 1 rep for the most part, with a win at Abu Dhabi and runner-up at the Match Play, but he’s lukewarm of late. Fell out of contention with a poor weekend last week at Doral. He’s also never played Copperhead. I’m not crazy about the German this week.
Nick Watney
Transitions Championship odds: +1015
Watney has oh-so much going for him this week. Red-hot after winning last week: check. First on Tour in all-around ranking, scoring average and bogey avoidance? Check. However, Copperhead’s history points to older, more wily winners. Also, it’s just so rare these days for any guy to win twice in a row. Lastly, the +1015 return on your investment isn’t great.
THE CONTENDERS
Retief Goosen
Transitions Championship odds: +2550
Hasn’t been horrible in his two stroke-play starts this year, finishing 12th at the Northern Trust and 31st at the Cadillac last week, and Goosen also won the Transitions Championship in 2009. He made a valiant effort to defend last year as well, finishing fifth. Experience and a strong history at Copperhead make Goosen worth a look.
Bubba Watson
Transitions Championship odds: +2750
The uber-talented Watson has the special skill to go low – he’s fourth on Tour in birdie average – and he finished third at Copperhead last year. However, he seems snake bitten this year; he withdrew due to injury a few weeks back and due to the flu last week. Someone needs to put down that Bubba voodoo doll.
Vijay Singh
Transitions Championship odds: +2850
The 2004 Transitions Championship victor, Vijay continues to enjoy a mini-resurgence. He was top-25 at Doral last week and ranks seventh in an important stat for Copperhead: birdies or better on par-3s. Still, I’d like to see Vijay really flirt with a win before I trust him again.
SOLID PICKS
Jim Furyk
Transitions Championship odds: +3250
Furyk is the defending champion and reigning PGA Player of the Year. But he looks like he’s in no shape to repeat at the Transitions Championship. Since opening his season with a ninth-place finish, Furyk has waggled his way to two missed cuts, a 35th and a 49th over his last four stroke-play efforts. I’d avoid him. 
Padraig Harrington
Transitions Championship odds: +3250
Paddy isn’t exactly sizzling but I have a good feeling about him. The consummate course manager seems to play better the tougher the track is. He also ranks 11th on Tour in putts per round and finished eighth at Copperhead last year. I like his makeup for this event.
THE SLEEPER
Charles Howell III
Transitions Championship odds: +4050
Howell has flirted with success more often than not this season, posting four top-15s in seven tries. He’s statistically among the Tour’s best in GIR, scoring and bogey avoidance. If he was just more of a winner over the course of his career, I’d endorse him this week.
THE PICK
Since lightning rarely strikes twice, I’ll shy away from Watney this week. Instead, Paddy is my man. His 10th-place at the WGC-Cadillac last week suggests he’s warming up and I think his putter could give him a leg up on the field. Give the seasoned Irishman a shot.
Transitions Championship pick: Padraig Harrington +3250
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2011 Transitions Championship – Odds to Win – Updated Betting Odds
John Daly 250-1
Bill Haas 30-1
Brian Gay 50-1
Bubba Watson 30-1
Brendon de Jonge 80-1
Hunter Haas 80-1
David Duval 100-1
Geoff Ogilvy 30-1
JJ Henry 100-1
David Toms 60-1
Brandt Snedeker 80-1
Jason Day 50-1
Jerry Kelly 80-1
KJ Choi 30-1
John Senden 60-1
Charles Howell III 40-1
Lucas Glover 60-1
Martin Kaymer 10-1
Charley Hoffman 80-1
Marc Leishman 60-1
Chad Campbell 80-1
Mark Wilson 80-1
Jim Furyk 30-1
Kevin Na 60-1
Justin Rose 30-1
Stephen Ames 50-1
Stewart Cink 60-1
Stuart Appleby 50-1
Tommy Gainey 80-1
Vijay Singh 30-1
Zach Johnson 50-1
zx Field (Any Other Golfers) 11-4
Jonathan Byrd 30-1
Justin Leonard 80-1
Padraig Harrington 25-1
Jimmy Walker 80-1
Paul Casey 20-1
Peter Hanson 80-1
Retief Goosen 25-1
Ricky Barnes 60-1
Rory Sabbatini 50-1
Ryan Moore 30-1
Ryan Palmer 80-1
Ryo Ishikawa 100-1
Sean OHair 60-1
Sergio Garcia 50-1
Spencer Levin 40-1
Matteo Manassero 60-1
Martin Laird 40-1
Nick Watney 10-1
