PGA Betting – The Masters Championship Preview & Pick
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LAST WEEK: We hardly embarrassed ourselves with Matt Kuchar at the Shell Houston Open. Solid as usual, he played to a tie for eighth place. But the weekend belonged to Phil Mickelson. Lefty finished 63-65 to blow past the field. Now he has everyone asking: is the Masters his to lose?
THIS WEEK’S PGA BETTING
Date: April 07 – 10
Event: The 2011 Masters
Course: Augusta National GC, Augusta, Georgia
Purse: $7,500,000
Defending Champ: Phil Mickelson
Winning Share: $1,350,000
FedEX Cup Points Up For Grabs: 600
Time for the world’s best golfers to walk the lush greens of Augusta. “Greens” is the right word – as they almost always factor prominently at golf’s most prestigious tournament. Look at guys like Ben Crenshaw and Mike Weir over the years. You have to putt to win. And scrambling ability certainly helps. Let’s look at the key names to consider in the field this week.
THE PHIL CATEGORY
Phil Mickelson
Masters odds: +550
Understandably, Mickelson’s odds jump dramatically after his victory last week. He’s erratic off the tee and his scrambling hasn’t been up to snuff this season. But we’ve learned that Mickelson is a guy to ride when he’s hot. He’s third on Tour in birdie average and he’s a top-20 putter this season. If he doesn’t win, I like him for at least a top-five finish.
THE TIGER CATEGORY
Tiger Woods
Masters odds: +900
At least Mickelson earned back our trust with his victory at the Shell Houston Open. Tiger hasn’t. Forget his closet full of Green Jackets. He hasn’t looked remotely special this season. He’s 191st in driving accuracy and 107th in putting. It simply makes no sense to pick him.
THE CONTENDERS
Lee Westwood
Masters odds: +1415
Are you a believer that he’ll get the monkey off his back this year? I’m not. Westwood was the runner up at Augusta last season but he finished fourth at the Shell Houston Open the week prior. This year, he was 30th at the Shell Houston Open. He has less momentum this time around – and his putter has been cold.
Nick Watney
Masters odds: +1815
Has there been a better golfer on Tour than Nick Watney this season? He’s six for six in cuts made, with top-25s in every start; he has five top-10s; and he has a victory. Watney leads the tour in birdie average, scoring average, par breakers and all-around ranking. He’s also second in putting. Inexperience as a major champion is the only thing potentially standing in his way.
Martin Kaymer
Masters odds: +2050
The young German looks great on paper the same way Watney does – fourth in sand saves, 16th in putts per round — but he could have the mental edge as last year’s PGA Championship winner. Then again, Kaymer hasn’t been particularly good this season in terms of actual tournament results. 
SOLID PICKS
Luke Donald
Masters odds: +3050
Luke Donald is just another young player who (a) is playing great this season and (b) is strong in the areas I think are important at Augusta. He’s 12th in Tour in putts per round and eighth in sand-saving. If you pay attention to value, Donald is a similar pick to Watney but with a bigger return.
Graeme McDowell
Masters odds: +3250
If you asked me a month ago, I was all about McDowell as my pick to win the Masters. He has a major under his belt, he’s accurate off the tee and his short game is sufficient. But the Irishman is cold. He finished 42nd at the WGC-CA before missing the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. By contrast, he had won a European Tour event directly before he won the U.S. Open last year. He came in hot.
THE SLEEPER
Steve Stricker
Masters odds: +5250
Definitely on the short list of “best players without a major,” Steve Stricker seems to contend every week. He’s smooth as can be around the greens and, of course, with that putter of his. Aside from a sixth-place two seasons ago, Stricker has a spotty record at Augusta, but his game should amount to a good performance at Augusta sooner or later.
THE PICK
Sniff, sniff. I’m feeling sentimental. Mickelson is hot. Watney has been an absolute force on the Tour this year. And I think they’ll probably round out the top three at the Masters. But I have a weird hunch about Stricker. I know he’s crumbled under pressure in the past – but he’s too good not to win a major eventually. And his skills actually do suit the course. I say go for it.
Masters pick: Steve Stricker +5250
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2011 Masters – Odds to Win – Updated Betting Odds
Phil Mickelson 5/1
Tiger Woods 7/1
Nick Watney 15/1
Bubba Watson 20/1
Lee Westwood 20/1
Dustin Johnson 20/1
Rory McIlroy 20/1
Martin Kaymer 20/1
Hunter Mahan 25/1
Matt Kuchar 25/1
Luke Donald 25/1
Anthony Kim 30/1
Justin Rose 30/1
Paul Casey 30/1
Aaron Baddeley 40/1
Graeme McDowell 40/1
Steve Stricker 40/1
Padraig Harrington 40/1
KJ Choi 50/1
Ian Poulter 50/1
Rickie Fowler 50/1
Adam Scott 60/1
Sergio Garcia 60/1
Rory Sabbatini 60/1
Geoff Ogilvy 60/1
Jim Furyk 60/1
Retief Goosen 60/1
Brandt Snedeker 80/1
Vijay Singh 80/1
Zach Johnson 80/1
Ernie Els 80/1
Fred Couples 80/1
Trevor Immelman 80/1
Ryan Moore 80/1
Francesco Molinari 80/1
Steve Marino 80/1
Stewart Cink 100/1
Louis Oosthuizen 100/1
Ricky Barnes 100/1
Angel Cabrera 100/1
Robert Karlsson 100/1
Charl Schwartzel 100/1
Sean OHair 100/1
Bill Haas 100/1
Bo Van Pelt 100/1
YE Yang 100/1
Alvaro Quiros 100/1
Jason Day 100/1
Robert Allenby 125/1
Lucas Glover 125/1
Jeff Overton 125/1
Tim Clark 125/1
Ben Crane 125/1
David Toms 125/1
Heath Slocum 150/1
Davis Love III 150/1
Peter Hanson 150/1
Miguel Angel Jimenez 150/1
Stuart Appleby 150/1
Ryo Ishikawa 150/1
Ross Fisher 150/1
Henrik Stenson 150/1
Edoardo Molinari 150/1
Camilo Villegas 150/1
Carl Pettersson 200/1
Kevin Na 200/1
Jason Bohn 250/1
Jerry Kelly 250/1
Alex Cejka 300/1
Mike Weir 300/1
Tom Watson 400/1
Gregory Havret 500/1
Mark Omeara 500/1
Yuta Ikeda 500/1
Field (Any Other Golfer) 12/1
