PGA Betting – Valero Texas Open Preview & Pick
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We could see a surprisingly interesting week at the Valero Texas Open.
Date: Thursday May 13 – May 16
Event: Valero Texas Open
Course: TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course), San Antonio, Texas
Purse: $6.1 million
Defending Champ: Zach Johnson
FedEX Cup Points Up For Grabs: 500
The reason: Greg Norman served as a consultant (along with Sergio Garcia) in carving out TPC San Antonio and making it a tough course that requires ball striking along with a bit of distance for success. We’ll keep those criteria in mind when we examine potential picks for this week.
THE ELITE
I’d argue that no one gets elite status this week.
THE CONTENDERS
Ernie Els
Valero Texas Open odds:+1015
In terms of accomplishments this season, Els is head and shoulders above the field this week. He’s first on Tour in money and FedEx Cup points; no one else playing this week is in the top 15 in either category. But, honestly, Els has cooled off. He missed the cut at the Players Championship. His hot streak seems to be over.
Zach Johnson
Valero Texas Open odds: +1215
2010 really hasn’t been Johnson’s year but the defending Valero Texas Open champ is still one of the best ball strikers on Tour. His lack of length may hurt him but he’s still 16th on Tour in driving accuracy, so he warrants a look.
Bo Van Pelt
Valero Texas Open odds: +1850
All aboard the Bo Van Pelt bandwagon! Wow. I never thought I’d ever type those words. But the truth is that he leads the Tour in ball striking and has three straight top-fives. He also handles the wind (which is expected this week) well and ranks 24th in driving distance. The stats in his favor are overwhelming this week. 
SOLID PICKS
Justin Leonard
Valero Texas Open odds: +2550
You won’t hear much talk about Leonard this week, as he’s having a poor 2010 season, but he’s always been a strong wind player and he finished fifth at last year’s Valero Texas Open. If you’re thinking about Johnson you may as well switch your bet to Leonard, who offers more than double the sportsbook value.
Adam Scott
Valero Texas Open odds: +2550
I’m quite high on Scott this week. He’s third on Tour in ball striking and 17th in driving distance. He’s also quietly posted four top-30 finishes in his last five starts, so he could be due for a strong outing.
THE SLEEPER
John Rollins
Valero Texas Open odds: +3250
As his odds attest, he’s almost more of a contender than a sleeper this week. He clicks the ball just right for this course (fourth in ball striking, sixth in total driving) and he has three top-25s in his last four starts. He has a very similar makeup to Scott relative to this tournament but offers more value and is playing a bit better.
THE PICK
Rollins and Scott both jump out at me a bit, but I can’t recommend anyone in good conscience who isn’t Bo Van Pelt. We can try to overthink this one but, if you believe in statistical analysis at all, everything points to Van Pelt winning this week. Make the educated bet.
Pick: Bo Van Pelt +1850
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