PGA Betting – 2010 Masters Preview & Pick
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We’ve heard people dub the Masters “The Super Bowl of golf” before. Never does that expression ring truer than this year. With Tiger Woods picking Augusta as the site of his return, this year’s tournament may be the most watched in golf history.
Bettors have two huge questions to answer. Can Tiger win it? And, if he can’t, who will?
Date: Thursday April 08 – Sunday April 11th
Event: 2010 Masters Tournament
Course: Augusta National GC, Augusta, Georgia
Purse: $7,000,000
Defending Champ: Angel Cabrera
FedEX Cup Points Up For Grabs: 600
Let’s break down the most intriguing picks of the week.
THE TIGER CATEGORY
Tiger Woods
Masters odds: +465
He’s unique in that we can’t evaluate him based on this season’s performance, but it’s not like we ever treated him like the other golfers anyway. I don’t expect a flop; Tiger is simply too competitive and you could even argue that, since he’s “expected” to be nervous, he’ll actually feel lesspressure to perform in a strict golf sense. I thus see a top-25 finish but I’m not sure his driving accuracy will be up to snuff.
THE ELITE
Ernie Els
Masters odds: +1085
Ask any moderately serious bettor on the street and he’ll probably tell you Ernie Els is his or her Masters pick. The Big Easy is tough to stop when he’s in a groove and he has two wins on Tour this season. But why oh why did he have to play so many tournaments in a row leading up to Augusta? Ernie is no spring chicken and I think fatigue could stop him from winning this week.
Phil Mickelson
Masters odds: +1215
He’s only here because some readers would ask questions if he wasn’t. But make no mistake: Mickelson is “elite” only in his listed odds right now. Books continuously place him near the top of the favorites as a sucker’s bet, knowing he’ll draw action on name recognition. But he’s simply not playing well right now. I’d avoid him.
THE CONTENDERS
Padraig Harrington
Masters odds: +2050
Aside from an ugly 77 at the Shell Houston Open last Sunday, Paddy was building momentum, posting two straight top-10s entering last weekend. He ended 2009 on somewhat of a tear and could be starting a similar hot streak. His game isn’t peaking in time for Augusta, however, so he may be a better pick for the Players Championship. 
Lee Westwood
Masters odds: +2050
Is the glass half empty or half full? Westwood has just one top-10 in 10 Masters starts. However, he’s contended in recent majors and his game is in right place; he led the field in birdies at the Shell Houston Open.
Retief Goosen
Masters odds: +2550
Hmmm. Here’s a tempting pick. Goosen has been a straight line this season, posting five top-six finishes in seven starts. We know he has the ice in his veins to win a major championship and he’s driving the ball very well this season. You could do much worse than the cool, collected South African.
SOLID PICKS
Steve Stricker
Masters odds: +2550
He flashed a silky smooth touch at Augusta last season, going over par on just four holes and finishing sixth. Is it finally time for the No. 2 player in the world to get the monkey off his back? Some bettors may think so but I’m still not convinced he’s a “big tournament” golfer.
Anthony Kim
Masters odds: +3250
I know he’s coming off a victory but I see Kim as a trap this week. First off, he was arguably lucky in winning the Shell Houston Open. He was last in fairways hit and 50th in greens in regulation despite taking the title. Those tendencies will punish him dearly at Augusta. Secondly, he’s playing with a torn thumb ligament and will have surgery next week. Sooner or later it will start to hinder him.
THE SLEEPERS
Charl Schwartzel
Masters odds: +4050
Who? Don’t feel bad if you haven’t heard of Charl Schwartzel, as he’s making his Masters debut this week. But the youngster has two top-three finishes in three stroke-play events this season and did his good work on some pretty tough courses. Maybe the South African’s anonymity will keep the pressure off and he’ll surprise us.
Angel Cabrera
Masters odds: +6050
I’ll be honest; the peripheral numbers aren’t kind to Cabrera. You have to hit fairways to win the Masters most of the time. But one stat does stand out; he ranks first on Tour in driving distance. He also won the tournament out of nowhere last year. Given his propensity to shock us with sudden sound performances, bettors could roll the dice on him and hope they catch lightning in a bottle.
THE PICK
Sorting through all the different candidates to win, I see plenty of talented golfers, plenty of former major champions, but I also see a roller coaster of inconsistencies, injuries and intangibles. That’s why I like the one constant on my list, Retief Goosen, to calmly slide past the competition and take the 2010 Masters. He’s flirted with victory all season; it’s time to take the next step.
Pick: Retief Goosen +2550
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