NFL Week 9 Free Pick – Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs
The sad sack Kansas City Chiefs (1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS) are enduring a season that is even worse than they envisioned possible. On Sunday they will play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-3 SU & ATS) in an NFL contest that is scheduled to take place at 1 PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium (natural turf) in Kansas City.
Sunday, November 2
BetUS NFL betting odds: TAMPA BAY -8.5, Total 36.5
NOTABLE STAT: Chiefs have allowed 5.6 yards per rushing attempt
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: KC is 1-7 SU & ATS in last eight home games
In the BetUS NFL football betting odds, the Bucs are listed as an 8.5-point favorite, with a posted total of 36.5 points.
Here are some NFL football sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* TB has won and covered five of its last seven games
* TB has played four of its last five games UNDER the total
* TB has covered two of its last six road games
* TB has lost five of its last six road games SU
* TB has played six of its last eight road games OVER the total
* KC has covered two of its last six games
* KC has lost 15 of its last 16 games SU
* KC has played four of its last five games OVER the total
* KC has lost seven of its last eight home games SU
* KC has covered one of its last eight home games
* KC has played seven of its last nine home games OVER the total
Also…
* TB has covered four of the last five meetings
* KC has won four of the last six meetings SU
I wonder if the talk in Kansas City has shifted to whether Tyler Thigpen is the new “quarterback of the future” following his 280-yard performance against the New York Jets, which included two touchdown passes. Brodie Croyle, who last had that designation, is perpetually injured, it seems, and Thigpen adds an element of elusiveness that is missing with both Croyle and veteran Damon Huard. In fact, Chiefs coach Herm Edwards is moving with the spread offense, because that is what Thigpen ran at Coastal Carolina. But let’s consider that prior to the Jets game, Thigpen was 24 for 57 in his previous three starts, and you begin to come back to reality.
And Thigpen has likely not encountered anything like the kind of defensive schemes he will face from crafty Tampa Bay defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin, who has befuddled many an experienced signal-caller. Look for Thigpen’s difficulties to be magnified with the likely absence of Larry Johnson, who is slated (at least as of now) for a third straight week of suspension-forced inactivity because of his bad behavior.
Tampa Bay was thoroughly disappointing in its 13-9 loss to Brad Johnson and the Dallas Cowboys this past Sunday. Part of the big downer was in the rushing totals, which revealed just 48 net yards gained by Tampa Bay. That’s not the way Jon Gruden wants to play this thing. Fortunately for him, the Chiefs are the NFL’s worst defensive line in defending the run, as they give up a ridiculous 5.6 yards a rush and 197 yards per game.
This one becomes a lot easier when you understand that Kansas City does not have a real home field advantage, as the Chiefs have won and covered one of their last eight games at Arrowhead. Jeff Garcia is still completing a high percentage of passes (67.5%, and even higher – 71% – in the last four games), so that should make things work for the west coast attack. We’re not shy about laying the points with Tampa Bay, the 8.5-point favorite in the BetUS NFL football sports betting odds.
