Week 6 Patriots vs. Chargers NFL Predictions

NFL Football Betting – New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers

The two teams who faced each other in the AFC championship game a year ago will lock horns on Sunday, although it’s looking less and less like a preview of a rematch for that AFC title. The New England Patriots (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) travel to San Diego to face the Chargers (2-3 SU, 2-2-1 ATS) in this contest that is scheduled to kick off at 8:15 PM ET at Qualcomm Stadium (natural turf).

Sunday, October 12
BetUS NFL betting odds: SAN DIEGO -5.5, Total 44.5

NOTABLE STAT: San Diego has scored one point for every 11 yards gained on offense
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Patriots have won ten straight road games

In the BetUS NFL football betting odds, the Chargers are listed as a 5.5-point favorite, with a posted total of 44.5 points.

Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):

* NE has covered two of its last ten games
* NE has won 21 of its last 23 games SU
* NE has played eight of its last 11 games UNDER the total
* NE has covered 15 of its last 20 road games
* NE has won its last ten road games SU
* NE has played four of its last five road games OVER the total
* SD is 11-2-1 ATS in its last 14 games
* SD has won 10 of its last 14 games SU
* SD has lost four of its last six games SU
* SD has played four of its last five games OVER the total
* SD has won and covered eight of its last nine home games
* SD has played four of its last six home games OVER the total

Also…

* NE has covered six of the last nine meetings
* NE has won eight of the last ten meetings SU
* Six of the last nine meetings have gone OVER the total

Here’s a matchup that was probably made much more interesting after Tom Brady went down with injury, because the Chargers lost twice to the Pats last year – once in rather humiliating fashion at Qualcomm (38-14) before San Diego really got rolling, and then of course, in the AFC title game, when Phillip Rivers was hobbling around on a torn ACL that later had to be operated on, and LaDanian Tomlinson begged out of action. So obviously we’re expecting a Charger team that will be fired up. And San Diego has been covering numbers (11-2-1 ATS last 14).

Of course, they’re laying more than a few points here, and New England has now won ten straight road games. But the Pats are averaging only 19.8 points a game, and that’s a far cry from what they were doing in last year’s unbeaten campaign. Coach Bill Belichick has had Matt Cassel doing mostly low-risk stuff, where he’s completed 67% of his throws, but the more he’s been permitted to put it in the air, the more mistakes he’s made – like three interceptions and nine sacks in the last two games.

All this means New England, which is only chalking up 3.7 yards a carry in the running game, is hardly in a position to trade points. Some say the offensive line is finally being exposed, and the defense is getting a little old and worn. Maybe. Is this where the Patriots stop winning road games? Well, it doesn’t have to be, but there is going to be a very fired-up team in front of them; one that may well have been looking ahead last week as they came up flat against the Dolphins (202 total yards). If San Diego gets a lead, they will most definitely attempt to stick the dagger in.

Let’s take a shot and lay the points with San Diego, the 5.5-point favorite in the BetUS NFL football betting odds.

Our PLAY: SAN DIEGO -5.5 **