Venue/ Stadium: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
The Bucs (3-2) have an uphill battle this week against a red-hot Saints team that has won 4 straight, as Tampa was blown out last week and they will likely be without RB LeGarrette Blount and DT Gerald McCoy, who are both questionable with injuries.
Time/Date: 4:15 PM EST Sunday, October 16, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: Saints -220 / Bucs +190
Spread (ATS): Saints -4.5
Over/Under: 49
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview
Drew Brees is putting up great numbers, yet again, for the Saints and unlike last season they are legit at running the ball. NFL lines have the Saints as 4.5-away favorites in this NFC South match up with a total of 49.
Last week the Bucs were embarrassed losing to the San Francisco 49ers 48-3 and the Saints beat the Carolina Panthers 30-27.
Brees passed for 359 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT against the Panthers last week and he leads the Saints and their 2nd ranked passing offense. TE Jimmy Graham (32 rec 496 yards 3 TD) and WR Devery Henderson (13 rec 276 yards 2 TD), who is averaging 21.2 yards per catch, are the guys Tampa and their 20th ranked passing defense has to keep tabs on.
Tampa did not give up a ton of passing yards to the 49ers last week, but they gave up 3 TD through the air and did not come up with any INT. Where they did give up a ton of yards was on the ground giving up 213 rushing yards to San Fran. New Orleans features the 3 backs of Mark Ingram, Darren Sproles, and Pierre Thomas, who are all playing well and overall the Saints have the league’s 14th ranked rushing offense. They will be facing a Tampa rushing D that has really struggled this season and ranks 23rd in the league. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Tampa has a decent, at best, pass rush with 10 sacks through 5 games and it is important they pressure Brees, as if they do not he may light up their secondary.
Tampa QB Josh Freeman had a terrible game against the 49ers only passing for 187 yards with 0 TD and 2 INT. He does have a decent WR corps and TE Kellen Winslow as his targets and at least they will be facing a Saints’ pass defense that ranks 16th in the league and gave up some big plays through the air in the win over Carolina.
Freeman is the Bucs 2nd leading rusher and with Blount unlikely to play the trio of Earnest Graham, Kregg Lumpkin and Allen Bradford will have to pick up some yards on the ground. However, these guys have only combined for 104 rushing yards on the season. The Saints rank 15th in the league in run defense, but gave up over 160 rushing yards to the Panthers last week.
Betting Trends
New Orleans is 3-2 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-2 and Tampa Bay is 2-3 ATS and has an O/U record of 4-1.
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite and has an Over record of 6-2 in their last 8 road games.
Tampa Bay is 5-17 ATS in their last 22 home games, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog, and has an Over record of 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games.
Jason’s Pick: Seriously? No Blount, a struggling defense, and playing a Saints’ team that looks to be a Super Bowl contender? Yeah, take the Saints giving 4.5 points and take the Over as well, as I think the Saints may score near 49 points themselves.
