NFL Week 12 – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills Preview
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Steelers at Bills Matchup
Go Inside This Matchup With Our NFL ATS Stats —>
Date/Time: Sunday, Nov. 28 – 1:00 p.m.
Venue: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo
Steelers vs. Bills Lines
MoneyLine: Steelers -260/Bills +220
Spread: Steelers -6
Over/Under: 43
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills Preview
The Bills are finally getting some love in Buffalo. That’s what a come-from-way-behind win on the road will do for you. In one fell swoop Buffalo’s amazing victory at Cincinnati last week in which the Bills outscored the Bengals 35-0 in the second half helped talk fans off ledges, got the press off the backs of the players and finally gave some hope that this team has some talent to go along with its youth and gumption.
And if winning a few games down the stretch means that they don’t get to draft Stanford wunderkind quarterback Andrew Luck, then so be it. The Bills are prepared to go forward with suddenly-productive Ryan Fitzpatrick. Turns out the love of their life might have been sitting in the same classroom for years, and they didn’t know it.
There were signs that Buffalo was coming. Overtime losses at Baltimore and Kansas City. They had the Bears beaten for 3½ quarters. They beat a talented Detroit team. Then came the eruption in Cincinnati. So what if Lake Effect snow is scheduled to hit western New York on Thanksgiving? Winter? Bring it on.
If Buffalo can hang with the Steelers on Sunday, it will be a further sign that the Bills are ready to rejoin the NFL. The Steelers stand at 7-3 (tied with the Ravens) in what should be a race to the wire in the AFC North. The Bills might not be the cupcake that the Steelers envisioned when the season was taking shape in September and October, and with a trip to Baltimore set for Dec. 5, Pittsburgh can ill afford a letdown this week.
Trends:
PIT are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 12.
BUF are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 home games.
BUF are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games on turf.
Under is 11-5 in BUF last 16 home games.
The picks: All signs point to a close game here.
The Steelers unleashed a sizeable portion of venom at home against the Raiders last week and are still battling injury issues.
Buffalo now has more confidence with its passing game, so the Bills won’t have to try to pound the ball against the Steelers’ strong run defense.
That assumes decent weather. A late wager should be the move here. The potential for high winds is always present in Buffalo in November, which would depress scoring.
The relatively high O/U (43) is based on big scoring games by both teams last week, and as most handicappers will point out, defenses adjust and each game is separate and unique.
So two possible plays here are the Bills +6 and the under if winds are predicted (NFL Weather is worth a check on Sunday morning). Generally speaking, it’s always risky taking the over on games in Buffalo after Thanksgiving.
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Lawrence Paul is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog, and is a free-lance gambling and travel writer from Massachusetts.
