NFL Week 12 – New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions Preview
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Pats at Lions Matchup
Go Inside This Matchup With Our NFL ATS Stats —>
Date/Time: Thursday, Nov. 25 – 12:30 p.m.
Venue: Ford Field, Detroit, Mich.
Thanksgiving Day – Patriots vs. Lions lines
MoneyLine: Patriots -305/Lions +245
Spread: Patriots -6.5
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New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions Preview
Two presidential elections have taken place since the Detroit Lions last won on Thanksgiving Day.
In that time they have lost 6 times, by an average score of 36-12. Four different quarterbacks (Joey Harrington, Jon Kitna, Daunte Culpepper and Matthew Stafford) have started for the Lions in that span. Detroit has been beaten by a variety of quarterbacks, including good ones (Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers) and mediocre ones (Kerry Collins).
Joey Harrington was the last Lions QB to walk off the field a winner (2003, 22-14 over Green Bay), but quickly made up for that by starting and losing 41-9 to Indianapolis the next year.
Most everyone in the NFL concedes that the Lions are finally on the right path, even if their 2-8 record doesn’t indicate it. With Matthew Stafford done for the season the best Detroit can do is catch the wounded Vikings for third in the NFC North, even if they get decent play at QB from backup Shaun Hill.
But before the 8-2 Patriots add one to the W column, they should take a close look at Detroit’s home/road split. The Lions actually are a decent team at home. They got edged by Philadelphia when Michael Vick went crazy on turf, they dominated St. Louis and Washington, and they had the Jets beaten before losing on a field goal in overtime.
Whether this can be a game or not depends on Hill’s ability to move the ball against a shaky Patriots defense that allows opponents to gain nearly 400 yards a game but has shown the ability to make plays when they’re most needed. Three interceptions last Sunday against Peyton Manning saved their bacon.
Under is 11-4 in NE last 15 games in Week 12.
NE are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
Under is 7-2 in DET last 9 games in Week 12.
Under is 6-2 in DET last 8 Thu. games.
Over is 20-8-1 in DET last 29 games on fieldturf.
The picks: New England gives 6.5 in this one, a number that looks short. Tom Brady has always played well indoors and on artificial turf, and he’s at the top of his game right now.
If Brady even approximates what he did to the Steelers a few weeks ago (30 for 43, 350 yards, 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions), New England should be able to put this one in Belichick’s back pocket. If NE gets up by 10 or 14 in the first half, a possible play in the Over in the second half if the number is under 28.
The Patriots love to sit back, allow teams to move the ball and use up the clock.
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Lawrence Paul is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog, and is a free-lance gambling and travel writer from Massachusetts.