New York Giants vs New England Patriots Super Bowl 46 Preview
With Super Bowl XLVI on the horizon the question on many people’s minds – How many points are going to be scored in the Big Game? Vegas has set the Over/Under at 55 points – a number that is certainly very attainable for both teams.
N.Y. Giants (14-9) vs. New England Patriots (17-5)
When: 6:30 PM ET, Sunday, February 5, 2012
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
Broadcast: NBC
Giants vs. Patriots Betting Lines from betonline.com
Spread: Patriots -3
Moneyline: Giants +150: Patriots -170
Over/Under: 55 points
GO INSIDE THIS MATCHUP WITH OUR NFL ATS STATS —>
But the Super Bowl is a different type of ball fame – LOTS of long interruptions and frequent breaks in the flow of the game. So how do you pick the Over/Under? Below should give you an idea.
The Under has been surprisingly successful in recent Super Bowls – 5-3 in previous eight, including 3-0 the last three. In this matchup, the Total figures to be one of only three Super Bowls where 55 or above was the number. In the previous two, the games went Under including the last time that these teams met in the Super Bowl! If you look at those stats, the Under looks like a legitimate play.
But a look at some other stats tells us something different. The game features two quarterbacks that passed for over a combined 10,000 yards this season! During the regular season, the Patriots scored 32.1 points per game, while the Giants scored 24.6. In the playoffs, the Patriots have averaged 34 points per game, while the Giants have been at 27 – both offenses are very talented and are simply on fire!
The Giants snuck into the playoffs after a midseason stumble but it wasn’t the offense’s fault. The Giants have played the Packers twice down the stretch and in the playoffs – scored 35 and 37 points. They put up 37 points and 31 against the Cowboys defense down the stretch and they lit the Jets up for 29.[soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Patriots averaged 32.1 points a game and scored 30 or more points in 12 of their 16 regular season games. They put up 45 on Denver in the Divisional round and scored 23 on a very tough Baltimore defense in the Conference Final. Brady, Welker, Hernandez. Gronkowski – pick your poison
Defensively, these teams were nothing during the regular season – New York gave up an average of 25 points a game and was ranked 29th against the pass and 27th in total yards allowed. New England’s defense finished the regular season ranked 31st against the pass and in total yards allowed. But the Giants and the Patriots have looked better in the playoffs especially the Giants.
Some recent trends that may apply – the total has gone Over in four of the Giants last five games away from home. It has also gone Over in five of their last seven games as underdogs. The total has gone Over in 24 of the Patriots last 32 games as favorites and in 22 of their last 29 games overall.
However, the total has stayed Under in four of their last five meetings, including the Giants 17-14 victory in the 2008 Super Bowl with the total set at 54.5 points, but all five of those games were played outdoors.
Betting Prediction: On a fast track, indoors in Indianapolis it is hard to imagine each others’ OK defense slowing down the offenses. Both teams can and will score – too many weapons in this game to be held in check. This smells like a high scoring game – something like 31-28!
Pick: Take the Over – 55 points and enjoy the track meet!
