NFL Handicapping – Packers vs Colts Betting Spread / Matchup
The Packers (2-2) came up with a much needed win at home in this last game and to keep pace with the Bears (3-1) they need to beat the Colts (1-2).
Venue/ Stadium: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Time/Date: 1 PM EST Saturday, October 7, 2012
NFL Odds From: Bookmaker
Moneyline: Packers -300 / Colts +250
Spread: Packers -7
Green Bay Packers vs. Indianapolis Colts Preview
While Andrew Luck has played pretty well in his first 4 games it’s the same old song and dance for the Colts, who are struggling to run the ball and play defense. NFL lines have the Packers as 7-point away favorites with a total of 47.5.
In their last games the Packers beat the New Orleans Saints 28-27 while the Colts lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars 22-17.
On the season the Packers are 1-3 ATS with an Over/Under record of 2-2 and the Colts are 1-2 ATS with an Over/Under record of 1-2.
The Colts should be well rested for this game, as they are coming off a bye week.
The Colts may be distracted in this game and for the rest of the season since head coach Chuck Pagano was recently diagnosed with leukemia and he will be hospitalized for around 8 weeks.
Aaron Rodgers had his best game of the season last week with 319 passing yards and he spread the wealth around with his many solid targets. The Colts rank 16th in the league in pass defense, but they may not even be that good since they have not faced a team with a great passing offense.
Cedric Benson also had his best game last season with 84 rushing yards and there is a good chance he may better that total, as the Indy run defense has really struggled this season ranking 25th in the league.
Andrew Luck passed for over 310 yards in his last game, but he completed less than 50% of his passes. His main target is WR Reggie Wayne, who has nearly 300 receiving yards and is averaging almost 13 yards per reception. Luck will be facing a Green Bay secondary that gave up 429 yards through the air last week. It is key that the Colts’ offensive line plays well facing Clay Mathews, who ranks 2nd in the NFL in sacks, and a Packers’ pass rush that has the 5th most sacks.
The Packers’ run defense has not played well this season, but at least in this game they face Donald Brown, who is the lead rusher for Indy with only 155 yards and he is only averaging 3.6 yards per carry.
In some betting trends for this non-conference match up the Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, and they have an Under record of 14-6 in their last 20 road games.
The Colts are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss, and they have an Under record of 7-0 in their last 7 home games.
Jason’s Pick: Going with the Packers to win and cover, as I think they will be the Pack we are used to seeing and they will put up a lot of points.