Texans vs Patriots NFL Football Spread/Handicapping
Another rematch to close out the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Houston was embarrassed on their first visit to Foxborough. I expect they will play better but the end result is likely the same.
Houston Texans (13-4) vs New England Patriots (12-4)
Sunday January 13
Gillette Stadium – Foxborough, MA
4:30PM
Moneyline: New England -455, Houston +350 at Bovada
Spread: New England -9
O/U: 47.5
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Houston
Houston dropped to third in the conference on the last day of the season creating a rematch with Cincinnati in the Wild Card round last weekend.
Once again the Texans beat the Bengals, building some momentum for a regular season rematch with New England,a game that seems to sap some of the Texans’ confidence as they dropped two of three to close the season…
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In beating the Bengals the Texans leaned heavily on running back Arian Foster. He toted the rock 32 times, a season high, for 140 yards, also a season high.
The Texans controlled the clock, holding the ball for almost ⅔ of the game while their defense gave up less than 200 yards of offense to the Bengals.
They will need a similar performance to beat the Patriots…Though they amassed a very nice record the Texans were not a good ATS play this season. They covered last week as a small favourite but find themselves as a big dog this weekend.
There is good value on Houston but you might want to wait until closer to game time as money usually comes in on the Pats so you might get 10 or 10.5.
New England
New England finds themselves in a familiar position, waiting at home to start the playoffs.
After the beating they put on the Texans last month they should be feeling pretty good about getting things started on another Super Bowl run on Sunday. This is a big line based on the ease with which the Patriots handled the Texans and the major differences in playoff experience between these two teams… [soliloquy id=”82219″]
QB Tom Brady was superb against Houston, throwing for 4 touchdowns. He has enjoyed another fine season and is definitely in the running for MVP.
In that game they were able to have a productive ground game too which has been a steady part of their game this season – they finished 7th in rushing – making them even harder to play catch up against…
The Patriots are no strangers to being prohibitive favourites – in more than half of their games they have been favoured by 7 points or more.
I don’t see an upset in the making but I think the Texans will be able to keep this one within reach and watch out for the backdoor cover.
Spread Pick: Houston +9.5
O/U Pick: Over
Score Prediction: New England 30 – Houston 24
