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New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens Gambling Prediction & AFC Championship Preview

Ravens vs Patriots  NFL Football Spread/Handicapping

A rematch of last year’s AFC Championship won by the Patriots…barely.  New England has the advantage of being at home but also should not be overlooking this opponent.  Baltimore has to stay focused after fantastic road win last week.

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots
Sunday January 20
Gillette Stadium – Foxborough, MA
6:30
Moneyline:  New England -380, Baltimore +340 at TOPBet
Spread:  New England -9.5
O/U:  51

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Baltimore

It was an expected comeback by the Ravens that has brought them to this place.

This has been a funny season where the offense was supposed to take center stage but it has taken a while to get there.

On Sunday they put up 38 big points against Denver, exploiting a weakness in their game plan again and again.  That is tougher to do to New England…QB Joe Flacco definitely outdueled Peyton Manning last week, more yards and fewer turnovers.

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He also had his highest yardage game of the season when the Ravens beat New England earlier this season.  Still the key could be RB Ray Rice, who was also superb last week, giving them balance.

If Flacco doesn’t have a superlative game I am not sure they have much chance…Even though the Ravens beat the Pats earlier this year they are the one looking to revenge after being eliminated by NE in last year’s AFC championship game.

They showed then that they are not intimidated by the Pats.

This 9.5 is great value even though we know the Pats can light up a scoreboard.

I am even calling the upset here so I might put a little on the ML too.

New England

It appeared that New England barely broke a sweat in their win over the Texans last week.  All those trends about favouring the losing team in an in-season rematch fell apart for this one.  Now New England has another rematch, this time with a team that beat them just barely and has a history of playing them close. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Can they double up again?

They are heavily favoured to do so which makes me nervous…Even with Rob Gronkowski a non-factor due to injury the Patriots still made easy work of the Texans last week. QB Tom Brady and WR Wes Welker did their usual thing and the running game was effective.

It was a little concerning that the Texans were able to run the ball pretty effectively because you know the Ravens will want to do the same…

The Patriots in the playoffs are usually a good bet but in this one I think the value is all on the Ravens side.

The Pats are so public that betting against them is usually a solid proposition especially if you can nudge this one over 10 points

Spread Pick:  Baltimore +9.5
O/U Pick:  Over
Score Prediction:    Baltimore 31 – New England 27

By The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.