Divisional Round – New Orleans vs San Francisco Pick
On a weekend full of intriguing NFL playoff matchup, possible the best of the bunch may be a battle between the offensive juggernaut New Orleans Saints and the insanely talented defense of the San Francisco 49ers.
New Orleans Saints (14-3) at San Francisco 49ers (13-3)
When: 4:30 PM ET, Saturday, January 14, 2012
Where: Candlestick Park, San Francisco, California
Broadcast: FOX
Saints vs. 49ers Betting Lines from betonline.com
Spread: Saints -3.5
Moneyline: Saints -195: 49ers +170
Over/Under: 47.5 points
Saturday’s match features the best offense in the NFL against the best defense in the league. Needless to say, it should be fun!
A lot is being made of the Saints struggles away from the comforts of Dome. The Saints played five outdoor games and averaged 23.8 points per game in the four most recent ones. They barely won at Tennessee (22-17) and lost at Tampa Bay (26-20) in their two most recent non-dome games. Significant? You bet! That is until you look at the offensive numbers that the Saints have put up as the Hottest team in the NFL by far.
The Saints bring the #1 passing game in the NFL into San Francisco. Drew Brees has been absolutely unconscious this season on his way to breaking Dan Marino’s 26 year old single-season passing record. The Saints averaged 334.19 yards per game this season through the air and are coming off a Wild card win in which they threw for 466 yards and three scores. Those numbers will be hard to duplicate against San Francisco’s insane defense. But keep in mind that the 49ers have one weakness on defense – the passing game. Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles – pick your poison – you can’t cover them all!
Running the ball against San Francisco is a near impossibility – Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory and Darren Sproles did a good job this season carrying the Saints to the 6th ranked rushing offense in the NFL but against San Francisco’s top ranked rush defense, it is unlikely that they will be able to get anything going. Just a note – Steven Jackson and Marshawn Lynch were somewhat successful against the 49ers in their last two games of the season. The optimal term here is – somewhat!
Defensively, New Orleans is just OK but that is all they will have to be against San Francisco’s average offense. The Saints were 30th against the pass this season and 12th against the run. They are prone to enormous breakdowns – well see if Alex Smith and company can take advantage.
The San Francisco 49ers rode a strong defense to the #2 seed and a first round bye this season. Now it is time to capitalize! Let’s face it, the 49ers offense probably won’t win the game Saturday, it is going to have to be the defense that gets it done. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The 49ers had the 29th ranked passing game in the NFL this season averaging just 183. 13 yards per game. Alex Smith got better toward the end of the season and found Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis with more regularity. But it will have to be Frank Gore who gained 1211 yards this season and averaged 4.3 yards per carry that is going to have to dominate. An effective Frank Gore moves the chains and keeps Drew Brees on the sidelines. Kendall Hunter has proven to be a valuable change-of-pace back for San Francisco. He will have to be strong as well, particularly on third down.
As previously mentioned, San Francisco’s defense will have to be the key if the 49ers want to move on in the playoffs. They were 16th in the league against the pass (mostly because of the fact that teams had to throw on them in order to move the ball) and #1 against the run allowing just 77.25 yards per game on the ground. The 49ers were second in points against – just 14.31 per game. Patrick Willis will be back fully healthy this week making this unit even scarier!
Betting Prediction:
- San Francisco is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games, 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games against NFC teams, and 4-1 ATS against a team with a winning record.
- New Orleans is 8-0 ATS as a favorite, 8-0 ATS following a win, and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
- New Orleans is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings but is 4-9 SU in San Francisco.
- San Francisco is 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. NFC and 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
In a match between the best offense in the NFL versus the best defense in the game, I take the better offense each and every time, especially when the team that has the best defense is relying on Alex Smith at quarterback. The 49ers may be able to slow the Saints but there is no way that they are going to be able to stop them.
Let’s just say that the Saints are held to 28 points this week – very conservative estimate. I can’t see the 49ers scoring 29 – can you?
The Saints go marching on and erase all doubt about their abilities to play outside on grass!
Pick: New Orleans Saints -3.5
