SUPER BOWL XLVI Parlay
Only a few more days to wait – time enough to pick up your snacks, finalize your guest lists and place your wagers before the Big Game! Who ya got to win? Will the total go over the inflated 55 point line?
Take a look below for Dave B’s pick.
Bet The 2012 Superbowl ATS Side + Total
N.Y. Giants (14-9) vs. New England Patriots (17-5)
When: 6:30 PM ET, Sunday, February 5, 2012
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
Broadcast: NBC
Giants vs. Patriots Betting Lines from betonline.com
Spread: Patriots -3
Moneyline: Giants +150: Patriots -170
Over/Under: 55 points
A ton has been made about this year’s Super Bowl being “The Rematch” from four years ago. Although there has been much that has changed, there are some constants that can’t be ignored. The Patriots, like four years ago, are still viewed as the better team but the Giants, like four years ago hold an edge in the season series.
The Giants come into Sunday’s game having won five straight games by a staggering combined score of 141-67. The Patriots on the other hand have won 10 straight games – their last loss being a 24-20 defeat to these same Giants in Week 9.
Offense likely won’t be a problem in this game – the Patriots scored 32.1 points per game, while the Giants scored 24.6 during the regular season. In the playoffs, the Patriots have averaged 34 points per game, while the Giants have scored 27. The defenses will determine the winner! While both defenses struggled during the regular season (the Giants were 27th in total yards allowed while the Pats were 31st) at least the Giants had an excuse – health!
With Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck fully healthy along with Jason Pierre-Paul, the Giants figure to have exactly the type of game plan to at least slow down the vaunted New England attack. Tom Brady showed two weeks ago against the Ravens that there is a formula for beating the Pats – pressure Tom Brady and disrupt his timing. The Giants defense is perfectly suited to do just that.
New York has confidence and momentum to spare going into Sunday’s game and their defense appears to have the perfect formula to give the Pats fits! I love the Giants as underdog in this one – a 24-20 win against New England at Foxboro earlier this season was an unpredictable precursor for this game.
The Patriots are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 playoff games and are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus the Giants.
Pick: New York Giants +3
Now let’s take a look at the Over/Under for the game. Super Bowl XLVI features two quarterbacks that combined for over 10,000 yards passing during the regular season – incredible! Eli Manning has 923 yards and eight touchdowns with only one interception in the playoffs and 6,170 yards with 37 touchdowns and 19 interceptions total on the season. Tom Brady has 6,220 yards with 48 touchdowns and 16 interceptions this season – regular season and playoffs. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Patriots scored 32.1 points per game during the regular season while the Giants scored 24.6. New England scored 30 or more points in 12 of their 16 regular season games. They put up 45 on Denver in the Divisional round and scored 23 on a very tough Baltimore defense in the Conference Final while the Giants have scored 141 in their last five games – against some quality defenses. What does all this mean? Points won’t be a problem! Names like Manning, Cruz, Nicks, Brady, Gronkowski, Welker and Hernandez should make this a scoring bonanza!
A look at the opposing defenses also supports the notion of Super Bowl XLV1 beings a high scoring affair. New York gave up an average of 25 points a game and was ranked 29th against the pass and 27th in total yards allowed in the regular season. New England’s defense finished the regular season ranked 31st against the pass and in total yards allowed. It’s true that both defenses have looked better as of late but against top tier offenses, their numbers are likely to resemble their brutal stats of the regular season.
Take a gander at some of these stats – the total has gone Over in four of the Giants last five games away from home. It has also gone Over in five of their last seven games as underdogs. The total has gone Over in 24 of the Patriots last 32 games as favorites and in 22 of their last 29 games overall.
Prediction: Frequent commercial interruptions, nerves and the anticipation of Madonna’s outfit during the Half Time Show may cause this game to start out a little slow but once the teams gain their footing and grow comfortable in the insane environment, expect the points to flow. Both secondaries have been lit up all season long and with the leagues #2 and #8 passing games going head-to-head expect much of the same.
Pick: Take the Over – 55 points. Super Bowl XLVI will be a high scoring affair!
