Week 3 Odds: Minnesota vs New Orleans
The New Orleans Saints (0-2) host the Minnesota Vikings (1-1) in a must-win game. As always, be sure to keep coming back to Cappers Picks regularly for our free NFL picks all season long.
Minnesota lost to the Patriots (30-7) last week and I’m afraid this team is in trouble. The Saints ended up losing to the Browns (26-24) on the road and now they’re desperate to pick up a win at home.
NFL Week 3 Picks
Vikings vs Saints
When: Sunday, Sept 21st 2014 at 1:00pm ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
TV: FOX
NFL Week 3 Gambling Line: Saints –9.5 (-110)
NFL Week 3 Gambling O/U Line: 49 Points
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It’s early in the season, but the Saints defense has taken a serious step back. I thought the defense would be event better this year, as Rex Ryan has had more time to build it up, but that’s not the case early.
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Atlanta and Cleveland were both able to put up points on this defense. The Saints are allowing 31.5 PPG (31st), 323.5 PYPG (32nd) and 122.5 RYPG (22nd). That simply isn’t going to cut it in the NFL.
The Saints offense has played as expected. They rank 2nd in points scored (29.0 PPG), 6th in passing yards (278.0 PYPG) and 5th in rushing yards (156.5 RYPG). NO just has to figure out their defense.
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Minnesota is scoring 20.5 PPG (24th) while averaging 166.5 PYPG (32nd). They have the worst pass offense in the league and now that AP is out the Vikings will have one of the worst running games.
The Vikes are picking up 119.5 RYPG (17th), but unless Cordarrelle Patterson can rush for 100+ YPG than I can’t imagine Minnesota coming near their average and that’s not good news for Minny.
Matt Cassel will have to test this Saints secondary, but he has limited weapons and don’t forget that NO had one of the best secondary units in the NFL last season. I expect them to shutdown the Vikings.
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Mark Ingram is out for the Saints and that hurts the run game, especially in the red zone. They’ll have to rely on Drew Brees more in the red zone, but as long as he targets Jimmy Graham they’ll be fine.
I thought this point spread was a bit big considering that the Saints are 0-2, but both of those losses were on the road. The Saints are a completely different team at home and they should roll over Minny.
NFL Week 3 Gambling Trends
- MIN are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
- MIN are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 3.
- Over is 13-6 in MIN last 19 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 12-3 in NO last 15 vs. NFC.
- Under is 8-3 in NO last 11 games overall.
- NO are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 home games.
Free NFL Pick: Vikings vs. Saints
I feel that the Saints are too good to fall 0-3 although I said that last week as well. They’re at home though in this match-up and the Vikings have a bunch of off the field issues that they’re dealing with.
4* Play on New Orleans Saints –9.5 (-110)
Brees will have success in the pass game at home. Last week Colston wasn’t even targeted in the game, but this week at home you can expect that to change. The Saints will roll and cover ATS.
Check out our Updated NFL Football Week 3 Odds.
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