Week 11 Odds: Denver vs St. Louis
The Denver Broncos 7-2 (5-4 ATS) plays the St. Louis Rams 3-6 (3-6 ATS) at Edward Jones Dome. Be sure to come back to Cappers Picks for all of our free NFL picks that we provide all season long.
It’s hard to know what to expect from the Rams. They have wins over SF and SEA, but then they also have some bad losses.
NFL Week 11 Picks
Denver vs St. Louis
When: Sunday, Nov 16th 2014 at 1:00pm ET
Where: Edward Jones Dome
TV: CBS
NFL Week 11 Gambling Line: Broncos –9.5
NFL Week 11 Gambling O/U Line: 50.5 Points
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Denver is 1st in the AFC West, but the Chiefs are just one game back currently.
Almost 90% of the action is on Denver to win and cover the point spread this week. I agree that Denver will win this match-up on the road, but the Broncos haven’t been great away from Mile High.
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The Broncos are 2-2 on the road with their wins coming against the Jets and Raiders. St. Louis isn’t that good of a team, but they typically play well at home and this is a lot of points to have to cover.
Austin Davis is out and Shaun Hill is in at QB for the Rams. I’m on the fence about this decision. Hill isn’t going to take many shots down the field, but he’s also not going to turn the football over as much.
Denver comes into the game averaging 31.8 PPG (2nd), 317.9 PYPG (2nd) and 96.8 RYPG (25th). Manning has thrown for 300+ passing yards in three of his last four games and has looked great.
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St. Louis struggles against the run (124.2 RYPG – 25th), but they do much better against the pass (234.3 PYPG – 13th) and that’s mainly because they have one of the better pass rushes in the NFL.
The Rams allow 27.9 PPG (27th) and they have to hold Denver to about that to have a shot at covering this spread. STL averages 18.1 PPG (28th), 212.8 PYPG (26th) and 97.4 RYPG (21st) on offense this season.
It’s hard to look at the Rams offensive numbers too much because they’ve been rotating players in and out most of the season. You can bet that Hill isn’t going to put up big numbers this week.
Denver gives up 22.4 PPG (15th), 247.1 PYPG (19th) and 67.0 RYPG (1st). The Rams won’t be able to run the football effectively and that’s going to put pressure on Hill to keep the chains moving.
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NFL Betting Trends
* DEN are 19-7 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 16-7 in DEN last 23 road games.
* DEN are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games in November.
* Over is 8-1 in STL last 9 games in November.
* STL are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 11.
* Over is 12-5 in STL last 17 home games.
Free 4* NFL Picks: Denver Broncos vs. St. Louis Rams
The Broncos and Rams haven’t played each other since 2010, so H2H trends won’t help. Denver may not be great on the road, but they’re 5-0 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a losing record.
Denver Broncos –9.5 (-110)
Denver gets the job done against weaker opponents and at –9.5 I’ll bite. The Rams have played well this season against good teams, but with Hill at QB the Rams offense is going to be even more limited.
Check out our Updated NFL Week 11 Odds.
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