NFL WEEK 14 – BRONCOS vs. COLTS
So what’s the trick to beating the Indianapolis Colts?
Control the ball for large chunks of time? A lot of good that did the Dolphins.
Put a ton of points on the board? That helps, but the Patriots did that and still took an L.
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Time: Sunday 1:00 ET
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
MoneyLine: Broncos +250 (-110) / Colts -315 (-110)
Spread: Colts -7
Over/Under: 44
Pressure Peyton Manning? Right. Manning has been sacked only 10 times this season, less than once a game on average. He never seems to take a shot, and some teams have given up trying to blitz him.
The answer is all of the above. Or maybe none of the above. No one seems to know how to go about it, which pretty much explains the Colts’ 12-0 record heading into Sunday’s battle against the Broncos.
Denver has actually played three seasons in one – the 6-0 start, the four losses in a row, and now two straight dominant victories. Is the stock market-type fluctuation any surprise given its hyperactive head coach, Josh McDaniels? McDaniels, who has obviously put off changing to decaf until after the season, has taken a team with low pre-season expectations and driven it to within a win or two of a playoff berth. All the while screaming and yelling and pumping his fists every time the Broncos get a first down.
But whether McDaniels can bring his club into flyover territory and beat down Manning and the Colts is bit different than crushing the Chiefs by 31, as Denver did last weekend. Indianapolis is now within sniffing distance of a 16-0 regular season, and just seven victories away from running the table and winning the Super Bowl.
The other team in the AFC most resembling the Colts (fast defense, top-flight quarterback) is the Chargers, and just three weeks ago San Diego strolled into Denver and bitch-slapped the Broncos, 32-3. Since then Denver has righted the ship, but that loss is recent enough to still sting a bit.
With all the attention focused on Manning and the Colts’ ability to move the chains without even an average running game, it’s easy to lose sight of the fact that Indy’s defense ain’t half bad. The Colts give up on average less than 17 points a game, and the offense usually has that number covered by halftime. Indy is especially dominant in the third quarters, depressing and hopes for opponents who can hang for the first half. It has added up to an impressive 8-3-1 record ATS; Denver is just about as strong at 8-4 ATS.
The final one-fourth of the season contains interesting matchups for both teams. Indy needs this one, plus wins at Jacksonville (hardly a layup) and home against the Jets and at Buffalo to go into the playoffs 16-0. Denver is home against Oakland, travels across the country to face the Eagles, and then finishes up with KC at home.
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Lawrence Paul is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog, and is a free-lance gambling and travel expert from Massachusetts.
