NFL Handicapping – Browns vs Colts Betting Spread / Matchup
Venue/ Stadium: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Time/Date: 1 PM EST Sunday, October 21, 2012
NFL Odds From: Bovada
Moneyline: Browns +110 / Colts -130
Spread: Colts -2.5
Cleveland Browns vs. Indianapolis Colts Preview
The Browns (1-5) are coming off their first win of the season and now are on the road to face a Colts’ (2-3) team that is coming off a blowout loss. Andrew Luck has had an up and down season with the Colts not losing or winning 2 straight all season and after a solid game in the shocking win over Green Bay he fell down to earth last week against the Jets with 2 picks and a lost fumble. His play will be key in this AFC match up since the Browns rank 30th in the NFL in pass defense. NFL lines have the Colts as 2.5-point home favorites with a total of 45.5.
In their last games the Browns beat the Cincinnati Bengals 34-24 while the Colts were blown out losing to the New York Jets 35-9.
On the season the Browns are 3-2-1 ATS with an Over/Under record of 3-3 and the Colts are 2-3 ATS with an Over/Under record of 3-2.
Brandon Weeden had a good game last week with over 230 passing yards and he and his decent WR corps may have a problem moving the chains in the air since the Colt have the league’s 3rd ranked pass defense. It is key that Weeden avoid the turnover and Weeden leads the NFL with 10 picks as opposed to only 7 TD.
The Colts have not been able to stop the run this season and that is a concern in this game. They may get Pro Bowl LB Robert Mathis back and they will need his help trying to contain Trent Richardson. He did not have a good game in the win over the Bengals, but he is the Browns leading rusher and 2nd leading receiver.
Luck also has to avoid the turnover and his main target of Reggie Wayne ranks 3rd in the league in receiving yards. While the Browns have been giving up a ton of yards in the air they rank 3rd in the NFL with 10 INT.
Cleveland does not have a very good run defense, but will that hurt them in this game? The Colts have struggled to run the ball this season and lead RB Donald Brown is out with a knee injury. Vick Ballard will get the call in the backfield, but for the season he only has 67 yards on a weak 2.3 yards per carry average.
The Browns have lost 10 straight on the road.
In some betting trends for this AFC match up the Browns are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games, 3-1-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, and they have an Under record of 12-5-1 in their last 18 games.
The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, 3-13 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, and they have an Under record of 7-1 in their last 8 home games.
Jason’s Pick: Even with a weak rushing attack I think Luck will play well and the Colts will win a cover in a close game.