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Chicago vs. Green Bay Week 17 Gambling Preview & Prediction

Week Seventeen Gambling – Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

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Bears at Packers Matchup

Sunday January 2 – 4:15PM
Venue: Lambeau Field – Green Bay, Wisconsin
Broadcast: FOX
Chicago (11-4) +350 vs Green Bay (9-6) -450 (Odds courtesy of BetUS)
Spread Favourite: Green Bay -9
Over/Under: 42
Go Inside This Matchup With Our NFL ATS Stats —>
(odds courtesy of BetUS – BET NOW Click Here!)

Chicago

The Bears have already clinched the division title and the outcome of this one will only affect their playoff seeding and whether Green Bay makes it into the playoffs.  In another era the opportunity to stick it to a rival would be enough for a team to treat this game like any other but coach who has felt the heat in the past, like Lovie Smith, knows that it is more important for the team to prepare for the playoffs.  It is difficult to tell how much the Bears key players will be on the field for this one.

It is especially hard to figure out how the Bears will perform because even when they have their first string offense on the field they sometimes struggle mightily to operate as a cohesive unit.  I think you will see Jay Cutler out there for a few series with all of the key skill players, especially Devin Hester and Matt Forte, looking on from the sidelines.  Backup QB Todd Collins has lots of experience so he shouldn’t embarrass himself out there even with limited weapons at his disposal.

The last game of the season is always a tough one to predict.  Chicago has always had a tough time winning at Lambeau, something they haven’t done since 2007.  Chicago has been just an average ATS team this year at 8-6-1.  The line of +9 is inflated because nobody is sure how much of the team that collected 11 wins this year will actually play.  We are all best of to ignore the Chicago side of this one.

Green Bay

It is the last game of the season and if Green Bay wins they continue into the playoffs.  They have a definite advantage in playing an opponent without similar pressure in the Bears, but can not be too confident given the inconsistent nature of their play this season.  They are at home and there is every reason they should win, but they need to perform.  The Bears, who might be playing mostly backups, are not going to give it to them.

Aaron Rodgers proved last week that there are no lingering cobwebs from the concussion he sustained against Detroit.  Last week against the Giants he had his best game of the season throwing for more than 400 yards with 4 TDs and no interceptions.  Another performance like that will pretty much guarantee the Packers another game after this one.  It would help if the Packers could get something going on the ground.  They have been trying all season.

I was surprised when I saw that Green Bay’s ATS record was a respectable 9-6 coming into this one.  If the Bears needed the win the spread would be below a TD and this 9 pointer may not be all that big given the circumstances.  This is an absolute must win for GB so their starters will be in for the whole game unless they can make it out of reach early.

The Pick: Unfortunately for Giants fans I don’t see the Packers losing this one.  With Rodgers feeling good and the Bears resting starters they are likely to cover as well.

NFL Gambling Trends

Bears are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
Bears are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC North.
Packers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
Packers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 17.

Score Prediction:  Green Bay 31 – Chicago 10

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About The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.


Comments

  • free picks

    This is an absolute must win for GB so their starters will be in for the whole game unless they can make it out of reach early.

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