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Week 3 NFL Spreads: Falcons vs. Patriots

Point spread, ATS odds, and moneyline betting and preview article for the 2009 Week 3 Sunday football NFL clash between the Atlanta Falcons and the New England Patriots…

NFL Week 3 – Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots

Thousands of people come daily to Patriot Place, the vast shopping/entertainment/restaurant plaza that surrounds Gillette Stadium in Foxboro. Unfortunately, none of the visitors seems to have even a clue about what ails their football team. Up is down and down is up in New England, where the Patriots’ powerful offense has been rendered impotent and a defense that uses players no one has ever heard of has been not that bad.

Time: Sunday 1:05 ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium
MoneyLine: Patriots -210 (-110) / Falcons +175 (-110)
Spread: Patriots -4
Over/Under: 44.5

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It all adds up to a 1-1 record heading into Sunday’s game at home against the dangerous and undefeated Falcons. Atlanta, which has already beaten up one AFC East team (Miami), can go to 3-0 on the season if it can replicate on the road what it has done at home. NE gives 4, but bettors are no doubt taking a long look at the O/U number of 44.5, which seems a bit high.

Talk about the Patriots cruising to the Super Bowl with the return of Tom Brady has cooled considerably in the wake of two suspect performances by the NE offense. Brady was ineffective in the opener against the Bills, then in Game 2 had trouble dealing with the Jets’ blitz packages – especially in the second half, by which time Bill Belichick usually has things figured out. Needless to say, the Pats have yet to come close to covering the spread.

So what’s wrong, and can New England figure things out by the time Matt Ryan and the Falcons start firing passes all over Gillette? Theories range from Belichick’s refusal to commit to a running game, to Randy Moss’s disinclination to work hard to get open, to players depressed by the unexpected trade of Richard Seymour and departure of other veterans, to a skittish Brady reluctant to step into the pocket, to dropped passes by new WR Joey Galloway.

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Belichick’s press conferences, never revealing, have become virtual calling hours as the coach refuses to speak in any more than the vaguest “We just have to play better” generalities. If the Pats are going down, they will go down much like the Spartans at Thermopylae, defiant as the arrows rain down.

If the Pats are indeed in a down and out pattern, the Falcons are chic – new and fun to watch in a where-did-these-guys-come-from? style. The drafting of Matt Ryan raised eyebrows, but the kid has a 108 quarterback rating after two games against 2008 division champions (Miami, Carolina) and as many weapons as Brady has. TE Tony Gonzalez (2 TDs) has showed that the tank isn’t empty yet, and Michael Turner is a top-5 running back. Roddy White and Michael Jenkins are in the upper echelon of wide receivers.

Defensively, the Falcons don’t have the attacking defense that had the Pats’ O-Line on its heels in the Jets game, but Atlanta does have 5 sacks and only four other teams have allowed fewer points over the first two weeks.

Both teams have a lot on the line. Atlanta needs a victory to keep pace with on-fire New Orleans in what is shaping up as a two-team race in the NFC South, while a loss by New England would set off full-scale panic in the 6-state region heading into an Oct. 4 matchup with Baltimore, which should be 3-0 by then.

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Lawrence Paul is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog, and is a free-lance gambling and travel writer from Massachusetts.

By Lawrence Paul

Lawrence Paul is back in the saddle as a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. He's got an AMAZING knack for predicting when a team will have a letdown! Stick with our resident gambling experts sports betting tips all season long!