NFL Division Preview – AFC West
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We will be covering the entire off season for each team and giving you a preview of the upcoming 2009 season with updates from now through kickoff of Week 1 of the NFL 2009/10 Season.
Aside from the Chargers’ fate, the NFL odds in the AFC West look tougher to predict than the apocalypse this season. It seems the Chiefs are headed in the right direction, but are they ready to make the next leap without Tony Gonzalez? The Broncos went from team on the rise to laughing stock this offseason and the Raiders are a perennial laughing stock.
No matter what happens in the West, we can at least say this motley crew of teams should entertain us when they play each other.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Odds to win the AFC West: -750
Whoa. That money line looks like Roger Federer’s Wimbledon odds. I can’t remember the last time a team was so heavily favored to win its division, but the odds are a testament to (a) The Chargers’ talent and (b) the serious lack of talent among their competition. We know what the offense can do; Phillip Rivers may be the most underrated quarterback in the NFL, as he led the league in passer rating and touchdown passes but got the Pro Bowl snub last season. His arsenal is dangerous as ever, especially with towering Vincent Jackson emerging as a legit No. 1 receiver. The Chargers – and many fantasy football fans – were down on LaDainian Tomlinson in 2008 as he hobbled through the season and lost carries to Darren Sproles, but don’t be surprised if LT2 bounces back for at least one more powerhouse season.
The question mark for the Chargers is defense; they allowed roughly four more points per game in ’08 than ’07, largely because Shawne Merriman’s injury set off a chain reaction that reduced quarterback pressure and led to fewer forced turnovers. With Lights Out Merriman supposedly healthy, the Chargers should bounce back and cruise to the AFC West title.
DENVER BRONCOS
Odds to win the AFC West: +700
If someone asked you to dream up the worst possible offseason for an NFL team, could your made-up version possibly top the dismantling of the Denver Broncos? Denver said goodbye to legendary head coach Mike Shanahan, who won two Super Bowls with them and posted a .610 win percentage. In turn, they’ve likely said to goodbye to an effective running game too.
The biggest disaster for Denver, of course, was losing Jay Cutler after the falling out with new head coach Josh McDaniels. They shipped the budding star quarterback to Chicago and it was the type of deal that favored the other team no matter what Denver got in return. Kyle Orton isn’t the answer, especially with top target Brandon Marshall demanding a trade.
Bottom line: Denver’s defense sucks, and now its offense sucks too. Stay far away from picking them unless you want to commit betting management suicide.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Odds to win the AFC West: +1000
Is it possible that the Chiefs could pull an Atlanta and explode into relevancy in their supposed “rebuilding” phase? The pieces could be in place. They acquired breakout quarterback Matt Cassel from the Patriots in the offseason and could have a steal on their hands if Cassel proves he wasn’t just a product of a good system.
He’ll have some decent weapons at his disposal in Dwayne Bowe and Mark Bradley. Even Larry Johnson could surprise with another good year in the backfield if the passing game pans out and he sees fewer eight-man fronts.
The Chiefs’ defense was horrible last year but it has nowhere to go but up. First-round pick Tyson Jackson should help with the pass rush in the new 3-4 scheme.
The Chiefs still have a long way to go and they’ll still give up points, but they should improve on last season’s 2-14 record easily.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
Odds to win the AFC West: +1000
Looks like the Black Hole is in for the same-old same-old this year. Canon-armed JaMarcus Russell made minor strides but the aerial attack is still among the worst in the league and rookie Darrius Heywood-Bey probably won’t be the answer, at least this season. The running game should be respectable with Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas but both guys are constantly nicked up.
Defensively, the Raiders have massive problems getting to the quarterback, and that puts major pressure on their secondary to make plays. Poor Nnamdi Asomugha; he may be the best cornerback in the sport but he can’t do everything on his own.
The Raiders won’t find the endzone much and their opponents will. Let’s set the over/under at…3.5 wins?
2009 AFC West Prediction
Unless the Chiefs surprise, few sports predictions are easier than this one. The Chargers have a cakewalk in football’s weakest division.
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