2012 Wildcard Playoffs NFL Gambling Lines: Top Matchups
Week 17 in the NFL closed out the regular season with 11 home teams covering against the spread verse just five road teams. The favorites had a 10-6 edge over the underdogs and nine games went ‘over’ the total while the other seven stayed ‘under’.
My top picks for Week 17 fell a bit short at 1-2, but the NFL playoffs offer up a whole new season of opportunity. After thoroughly crunching the numbers for the Wildcard Round, I uncovered two top plays for this weekend’s games. All odds quoted are courtesy of BetOnline.
Saturday, January 7
Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints
Point spread: New Orleans -11
Total line: 59
Detroit’s three-game winning streak came to an end this past Sunday with a 45-41 loss to Green Bay as a 6.5-point road favorite despite the fact that the Packers decided to rest many of their starters including Aaron Rodgers. Its 10-6 record straight-up (7-7-2 against the spread) was good enough to earn the sixth-seed in the NFC, but with a defense that is ranked in the bottom third of the league in almost every category, the Lions may need 50 points to get past the Saints.
It would be hard to argue that New Orleans is not the hottest team heading into the postseason. A 45-17 dismantling of Carolina as a seven-point home favorite in last Sunday’s season finale ran its current winning streak to eight games both SU and ATS. Drew Brees made a strong case for league MVP with another 389 yards passing to raise his single-season total to a NFL record 5,476 yards. The Saints offense finished the season ranked first in the NFL in total yards per game and second in scoring with an average of 34.2 points a game.
The Lions are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four road games and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall. The Saints are 8-0 SU at home this season and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games at the Superdome. These two met in Week 13 with New Orleans rolling to a 31-17 victory as a nine-point home favorite.
Look for more of the same this time around with the Saints winning at home and covering the 11 points. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Pick: New Orleans 37 vs. Detroit 20
Sunday, January 8
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos
Point spread: Pittsburgh -9
Total line: 34.5
Pittsburgh won eight of its last 10 games to finish 12-4 SU (7-9 ATS) but it was not enough to get past Baltimore in the AFC North. The big question mark coming into this game is the health of Ben Roethlisberger’s ankle. The Steelers already lost a huge chunk of their running game with the loss of Rashard Mendenhall for the season, so there will be even more pressure on Big Ben and the Pittsburgh passing game.
The Tim Tebow magic show in Denver folded its tent a little early this season with three straight losses to end the year in which the team was outscored 88-40. It remains to be seen how the Broncos are going to recapture the momentum that led to six straight victories before this recent slide. The unsettling thing about this team is that a normally stout defense gave-up 41 points to New England and 40 points to Buffalo in two of the three losses.
The Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven playoff games as favorites and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 playoff games overall. The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff games and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs. The road team in this series is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Even if Tebow does play better it will not be nearly enough to get the upstart Broncos past a seasoned playoff team like Pittsburgh.
The Pick: Pittsburgh 31 vs. Denver 17
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