2011 NFL Betting – Offensive Rookie of the Year Futures
The 2011 NFL regular season might kick off in September. A lot depends on the legal battle between the NFL owners and the NFLPA, as of right now we may not have a season to look forward too. Just in case its on thought we’ve already got a ton of Week 1 point spreads and over/under lines articles up for all the games in week one.
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To many bettors’ surprise, the recent NFL draft went quarterback-heavy in the early rounds even though the class wasn’t viewed to be particularly strong. However, most of the most highly touted players among the NFL Rookie of the Year futures aren’t signalcallers.
Here’s a look at the top 10 – plus a pick.
Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons (+500)
On one hand, rookie receivers are always tough to predict, so it’s surprising to see Julio Jones listed as the Offensive ROY favorite. On the other, he may have the clearest path to immediate success. Jones joins an already-flourishing Falcons offense featuring Matt Ryan at quarterback. Better yet for Jones, he doesn’t have to be the guy right away; that title goes to Roddy White, who should draw more attention opposite Jones and give the rookie some one-on-one opportunities.
Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints (+650)
The Saints’ pick of Mark Ingram was curious, in my opinion. OK, so they’re ready to cut bait on the injury-prone Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas. But Chris Ivory averaged 5.2 yards per carry last season. Is he chopped liver? Obviously not. Ingram will still probably be part of a timeshare, limiting his chances at the ROY.
Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers (+650)
If you believe that the Rookie of the Year award is very much tied to opportunity – and I do – then Cam Newton warrants major consideration. Carolina will give the No. 1 overall pick every chance to win the job and be the savior, just as Sam Bradford was for St. Louis last season. Even if Newton struggles as a passer, he can make waves with his running ability the same way Vince Young did as a rookie.
A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (+650)
As the first receiver drafted, Green should have better odds than Jones, shouldn’t he? Not exactly. Green’s quarterbacking situation is too muddy. The Bengals drafted Andy Dalton but will they give him the starting reins right away? And, if they do, is that a good thing for a rookie wideout? I’m not so sure.
Mikel Leshoure, RB, Detroit Lions (+1200)
The bruising back out of llinois could be a nice thunder to Jahvid Best’s lightning – but isn’t that a problem if you’re betting on him for Rookie of the Year? Do you want to bet on a guy who could be part of a tandem when Newton will play every offensive snap?
Daniel Thomas, RB, Miami Dolphins (+1200)
Thomas could be an intriguing sleeper. The Miami Dolphins appear ready to move on from Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams is long in the tooth. Could the door be open for the Kansas State product?
Shane Vereen, RB, New England Patriots (+1200)
Whereas Detroit drafted a power back to complement its burner, New England snagged Vereen as a potential home-run hitter to pair with Benjarvus Green-Ellis. But does any Bill Belichick running back ever get enough touches to contend for a major award?
Jake Locker, QB, Tennessee Titans (+1500)
Locker is a tough guy to handicap. Some scouts and bettors soured on him after his ugly senior year at Washington. Others believe he has the athleticism to excel with better personnel around him. Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt are good starts. I like him as a betting play more than I like most of the running backs.
Ryan Williams, RB, Arizona Cardinals (+1500)
I love Williams’ build and overall game as a running back. But how many carries will he get? He still has to battle Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower just to get the rock.
Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (+1800)
Like Julio Jones, Baldwin enters an already-dynamic NFL offense. Matt Cassel, Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles gave opposing defenses fits last season. He’s in a similar situation to Jones but offers more than triple the sportsbook value, so he could warrant a pick.
THE PICK
If you want value, you should strongly consider Daniel Thomas. Whispers out of Miami are that he could be the bellcow back by Week 1 of 2011 and he’ll run behind a great tackle in Jake Long. But I think Cam Newton is the realistic bet. He’ll get every opportunity to carry the Panthers and he has the legs to make plays even if his supporting cast stinks.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year prediction: Cam Newton +650
