2010 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Contenders & Picks
The 2010 NFL regular season kicks off on Thursday, September 9th when the defending Super Bowl Champion, New Orleans Saints begin their title defense at home against Minnesota. We’ve already got a ton of Week 1 point spreads and over/under lines articles up for all the games in week one.
It seems offensive rookies matter more and more in the NFL each year. After a banner rookie class in 2008 that saw two quarterbacks take their teams into the playoffs – Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco – Mark Sanchez repeated the feat with the Jets in 2009.
Suddenly, it’s not that far-fetched to expect big seasons from rookies at many different positions. Just ask Eddie Royal, Chris Johnson, Percy Harvin, Shonn Green and many more guys.
Here’s a look at the current top five sportsbook favorites and my pick to win the offensive ROY.
Note that Dez Bryant is missing; because of his high ankle sprain, most books have taken down his odds for now.
1. Ryan Mathews (RB) – San Diego Chargers
Offensive ROY odds: +300
Often, the name of the game is situation when it comes to which rookie has the best season. And no offensive rookie tumbled into a better situation than Ryan Mathews. The Chargers said goodbye to LaDainian Tomlinson and traded up to draft Mathews as their future horse in the backfield. He has an excellent chance to top 1,000 rushing yards and score 10 touchdowns as a rook.
2. Ben Tate (RB) – Houston Texans
Offensive ROY odds: +300
It’s surprising to see Tate with the same odds as Mathews. Nothing against Ben Tate, but he may not even be second – let alone first – on his team’s depth chart at halfback. Steve Slaton and Arian Foster will both steal plenty of touches from Tate in his rookie season. While I think he’ll eventually be the Texans’ featured back, that may not happen until 2011.
3. Jahvid Best (RB) – Detroit Lions
Offensive ROY odds: +650
Reggie Bush may not have totally set the world on fire as a rookie, but he broke a barrier. In the 1990s and early 2000s, there weren’t many duel-threat “hybrid” running backs besides Marshall Faulk and Brian Westbrook – guys who could literally line up at wideout when they wanted to. But, after Bush, we’re seeing rookies make impacts in hybrid roles every year.
Last year, Percy Harvin won Offensive Rookie of the Year after converting from a running back to a hybrid receiver. This season, Detroit’s Jahvid Best could have a big year; he could be the primary runner but will also catch his share of passes and get his shot in the return game.
4. C.J. Spiller (RB) – Buffalo Bills
Offensive ROY odds: +800
C.J. Spiller may be the most offensively gifted player in the entire 2010 draft class but the Buffalo Bills will hold him back this season. He could do big damage in the return game but he’ll run behind a horrific offensive line, share carries with two other backs and have a horrible quarterback tossing him passes. Not quite a recipe for the ROY.
5. Sam Bradford (QB) – St. Louis Rams
Sam Bradford has NFL-caliber tools indeed; his arm is a real weapon. He may actually have a better skill set than Ryan, Flacco or Sanchez. But those three rookie success stories all played on much better teams than Bradford will in St. Louis this season. I wouldn’t expect big numbers from him until the Rams develop a bit more.
THE PICK
For the conservative bettor, Ryan Mathews is safer than safe. But the NFL has taught us over the last few years that talent often wins out. Chris Johnson wasn’t supposed to start in his rookie season but he was just too dynamic to keep down. I see the same thing happening with Jahvid Best in Detroit (not Spiller yet).
Best can do so much with the ball in his hands and the Lions will play a run-and-gun style since they’ll trail in plenty of games.
I think Best will become a star and win the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2010.
Pick: Jahvid Best +650
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