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NFL Week 5 Betting Odds

Matt Martz weighs in with a Week 5 Preview, and NFL predictions, plus a look at the early Week 5 NFL odds, and betting spreads…

NFL Week 5 Preview

Week five is here and we are already one quarter of the way through the 2009 NFL season. This week teams will begin to spread out and separate themselves in the standings. The Titans are still looking for a win at 0-4, a long way from the 13-3 they were in 2008. After losing two straight, last years Champion Pittsburgh Steelers evened their record at 2-2 with an impressive win over the San Diego Chargers, and the Denver Broncos are 4-0 in the post Jay Cutler era.

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My pick for best game of the week is New England at Denver. Week five team bye weeks are, the Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, and the San Diego Chargers.

Sunday, October 11 1:00 pm – Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Buffalo –6 (Total 40)

The Browns (0-4) Derek Anderson might have secured the quarterback job for the rest of the season following his 269-yard, one-touchdown game against the Bengals in week four. WR Mohammed Massaquoi caught eight passes for 148 yards. But Cleveland’s defense still remains a question mark. The Bills (1-3) fell behind 31-3 heading into the final quarter and never recovered losing to the Dolphins 38-10 in their last outing. RB Fred Jackson has 18 receptions for 160 yards while Bills No. 1 receiver Terrell Owens is 8-for-158. Need I say more? The Bills win this one in a low scoring affair against a questionable Browns defense.

Sunday, October 11 1:00 pm – Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Dallas –8.5 (Total 43)

The Cowboys (2-2) have posted two victories against teams with winless records, and two losses against teams that are undefeated. Posing the question, can Dallas be a contender against the leagues top teams? The answer is doubtful. Tony Romo has gone two consecutive games without throwing a touchdown pass, the defense is mediocre at best, and the running attack is has been hampered by Marion Barber’s nagging quad strain. Kansas City’s woes are many but it could boil down to just one thing. The Chiefs (0-4) cannot convert on third downs. They have converted just nine of 51, less than 18 percent, and are dead last in the NFL in third-down conversions. Look for Dallas to get the win against another team with a winless record.

Sunday, October 11 1:00 pm – Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams
Line: OFF

The Vikings (0-4) are atop the NFC North and are coming off an impressive win or rival the Green Bay Packers. QB Brett Favre was 24-31, for 271 yards and 3 TDs against his former team. But even with Favre the Vikings success is also their ability to run the ball. RB Adrian Peterson is averaging 103 yards per game with 5 TDs on the year. The Vikings have had the NFL’s best defense against the run the past three seasons, but have also improved their pass defense. The Rams (0-4) were shut out 35-0 by the 49ers in their last outing and continue to struggle putting points on the board, having only scored 24 points in their last four. Things just don’t seem to get any better for St. Louis heading into week five, as starting QB Marc Bulger is considered questionable for Sunday’s game against Minnesota. The Vikings improve their record to 5-0 after Sunday’s contest.

Sunday, October 11 1:00 pm – Oakland Raiders @ New York Giants
Line: New York –16 (Total 41)

The Giants (4-0) cruised to an easy victory over the last place AFC west Chiefs on Sunday and will square off against the Oakland Raiders — the second worst team in the AFC west, in week five. New York WR Steve Smith has 34 receptions in the first four games, the most-ever by a Giants receiver in the first four games of a season. QB Eli Manning was reported to have injured his heel in last week’s game against the Chiefs, but the latest is that it is a minor injury and he will be allowed to play. This is good news for the Giants but bad news for the Raiders who are looking for a break. Oakland (1-3) is just plain awful. QB JaMarcus Russell was 12-for-33 for 128 yards in his last outing against the Texans, but you can’t blame him alone. Oakland’s receiving corp dropped nine passes, catching just four of 16. The Giants tenacious defense and potent offense will humiliate the Raiders and send them home 1-4.

Sunday, October 11 1:00 pm – Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Carolina ** (Total **)

Tampa Bay (0-4) led 10-0 at the half in their last game against the Redskins but fell apart losing by a final of 16-13. The Bucs are sticking with rookie quarterback Josh Johnson who made his first NFL start Sunday against the Redskins, passing for 106 yards with a touchdown and an interception while rushing for 44 yards. RB Cadillac Williams has struggled and the Bucs defense rates a C- at best. The Eagles (2-1) are coming off their bye week and should make quick work of Tampa Bay. Quarterback Donovan McNabb is expected to start Sunday’s game, and it has been announced that Michael Vick will dress but his role is yet to be defined. Tight end Brent Celek has 22 receptions in the first three games, while wide receiver DeSean Jackson is averaging 21.6 yards per reception. The Eagles have registered six interceptions and 10 sacks in their first three games and have held opponents to 3.6 yards per carry average. Look for the Eagles to dominate the Bucs and improve to 3-1.

October 11 1:00 pm – Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions
Line: Pittsburgh –10.5 (Total 44)

The Steelers (2-2) find themselves in third place in their division with a slow 1-2 start but rebounded nicely beating San Diego in week four. QB Ben Roethlisberger was practically perfect; completing 26 of 33 passes for 333 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions with a 128.9 passer rating. The Steelers run defense has been solid and the return of SS Troy Polamalu should improve the passing defense. Just when the Lions (1-3) shook the winless monkey off their back in week three, QB Matt Stafford suffered a right knee injury in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s 48-24 loss at Chicago. Initial reports have stated Stafford suffered a dislocated, or partially dislocated, kneecap and that it popped back into place, but his start on Sunday is questionable. The Lions will also be without WR’s Adam Jennings and Calvin Johnson who were placed on injured reserve. The Steelers will dominant the Lions and walk away with the win.

Sunday, October 11 1:00 pm – Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Carolina –3.5 (Total 37)

The Redskins (2-2) are coming off a win over the Buccaneers in week four and will have a chance at two straight when the face off against the 0-3 Carolina Panthers. RB Clinton Portis continues to be Washington’s bright spot on offense and would have had his first 100-yard game of the year if not for a penalty on Malcolm Kelly during Sunday’s game. Playing through an injury Portis chewed up 79 yards on 18 carries. The Panthers have had a rough start and are hoping to turn things around after a much needed week four bye. On offense, the Panthers have struggled and defensively, have given up 182.7 rushing yards per game. QB Jake Delhomme is 32nd in the league in quarterback rating .The Redskins will stack the box stopping the run to take this one on the road.

Sunday, October 11 1:00 pm – Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Baltimore -8 (Total 42)

The Bengals (3-1) find themselves tied with the Ravens atop the AFC north division after a come from behind win over the Browns last weekend. The winner of week fives match up will move into sole possession of first place in the division. The Bengals lost both games to the Ravens in 2008 and will try to end the run this weekend. Baltimore (3-1) is coming off their first loss of the season to the New England Patriots. QB Joe Flacco was 27-47 for 264 yards with 2 TDs, and 1 INT. The Ravens have averaged 33 rushing attempts in the first three games, but ran it only 17 times on Sunday. RB Ray Rice rushed for 103 yards on 11 carries. The Benglas will have their hands full with their first true test of the season. The Ravens edge out Cincinnati in a close one relying on their solid defense to get the win at home.

Sunday, October 11 4:05 pm – Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: San Francisco –2.5 (Total 41)

The Atlanta Falcons (2-1) are coming off a bye into week five, and should be well rested. TE Tony Gonzalez has proven to be a big boost to the team’s passing game, while the Falcons are trying to find its trademark running game. Quarterback Matt Ryan has shown development in his sophomore year and is hitting almost 66 percent of his passes, hooking up with Gonzalez on numerous occasions. San Francisco (3-1) has surprised everyone as is first in the NFC west heading into week five. Much of the 49ers success can be based on a stout defense and an offensive line that controls the line of scrimmage. With RB Frank Gore out of the lineup with ankle injuries, rookie Glen Coffee will continue to get the call. San Francisco’s defense will force Falcons Matt Ryan to throw the ball more as they shut down the running game and win this one at home.

Sunday, October 11 4:15 pm – Jacksonville Jaguars @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: OFF

Jacksonville started out the season 0-2 but is coming off a big 37-17 win over the Titans, evening their record to 2-2. QB David Garrard was 27-37 for 323 yards with 3 TD tosses in Sundays match, as the Jags wasted no time in launching an air assault against a tough Titans run defense. The Jags have also switched up their defense from a 4-3 to a 3-4 and it has proved successful. The Seahawks (1-3) are suffering through another injury-plagued start to a season. Starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has missed the last two games with a fractured rib he suffered in the game against San Francisco in week two, and is still listed as questionable to start against Jacksonville on Sunday. Seattle needs to get its ground game going in order to try and keep the ball away the Jags. With Hasselback, the Seahawks win this one at home, without they slip to 1-4.

Sunday, October 11 4:15 pm – Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Arizona –5.5 (Total 48)

Despite a decisive win over the Raiders holding Oakland to just six points in their last appearance, the Houston Texans (2-2) are ranked 25th in the NFL in total defense and 22nd in scoring defense. The Texans have added defensive personnel and should get a much better idea whether the new additions to the starting secondary are tangible against Arizona this weeked. The secondary will have its share of challenges covering the Cardinals receiving corp. The Cardinals (1-2) haven’t played nearly as well in three games as they did in the playoff run last season. The Redbirds should benefit from their recent bye week. The run game is struggling, and the pass protection has been poor with quarterback Kurt Warner being sacked seven times, in two losses.Much of the pressure to improve falls upon the offensive line. The Cardinals need to take a more balanced approach on offense and get rookie running Beanie Wells involved. Look for Arizona to rebound and even their record against the Texans at home.

Sunday, October 11 4:15 pm – New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
Line: New England -3 (Total 41)

The Denver Broncos (4-0) will face their toughest opponent so far this season and new head coach Josh McDaniels will have a chance to beat his former team when the Patriots visit Mile High on Sunday. Denver has fared much better than most thought post Cutler. QB Kyle Orton doesn’t always look pretty, but he is getting the job done and WR Brandon Marshall is coming on. The defense remains solid, anchored by veteran CB Champ Bailey. Behind the leadership of MVP quarterback Tom Brady who arguably had his best game of the season against the Ravens last weekend, the Patriots (3-1) have proven they are still the team to beat. The Pats defense has improved despite key personal changes and has allowed just six touchdowns in four games. This will be a hard fought battle with Pats winning on a late fourth quarter scoring drive.

Sunday, October 11 8:20 pm – Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Indianapolis –3.5 (Total 46)

“Remember the Titans? (of 2008). With Tennessee’s abysmal start this season one has to wonder why QB Vince Young has yet to start a game. Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher has given no indication that he is about to make a change and is sticking with veteran QB Kerry Collins. Collins hasn’t played as well as he did in 2008 and already has five interceptions after having only seven all of last season. The Colts (4-0) are one of the five remaining undefeated teams and have stepped up their defense allowing just 73 yards rushing over the past two games in wins over Arizona and Seattle, after giving up 353 yards in the first two games in wins over Jacksonville and Miami. On the other side of the ball QB Peyton Manning has been on a roll through the first four games of the season. Manning was nearly unstoppable in last weeks win over Seattle, completing 31-of-41 passes for 353 yards, two touchdowns and had one interception. Manning completed passes to seven different receivers. The Titans will lose at home, distancing themselves from any chance of a postseason run.

Monday, October 12 8:30 pm – New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
Line: New York –2 (Total 37)

Jets rookie QB Mark Sanchez has surprised a lot of people by avoiding typical rookie mistakes in the Jets first three games. However, it all fell apart in Sunday’s match up against the Saints. Sanchez threw three interceptions, one for a 99-yard TD by Darren Sharper, and losing a strip sack in his own end zone for another New Orleans touchdown. He also threw two fourth-quarter picks and was sacked four times. New York’s defense was solid considering that the Saints came into the game averaging 438 yards of offense, but was held to 343 by the Jets (3-1). The Dolphins (1-3) finally got some relief after posting their first victory of the 2009 season with a big win against the Bills on Sunday. QB Chad Henne was mistake-free in his first professional start, replacing injured starter Chad Pennington, going 14-for-22 passing for 115 yards and no interceptions. For a team with a losing record, the Fins have had little trouble running the ball with their running back trio of Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams and Patrick Cobbs. They lead the league with 183.5 yards rushing per game. The Jets will need to shut down Miami’s wildcat offense if they want to win this one. The Fins lost to the Jets at home in week one last year and then beat the Jets in the last game of the 2008 season. Look for Sanchez to lead the Jets to a victory at Land Shark stadium and claim his first ever Monday Night Football victory.

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Matt Martz is a freelance writer located in Central California. Blessed is the gambler who expects nothing, for ye shall not be disappointed.

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3 replies on “NFL Week 5 Betting Odds”

Since when has the Rams had Frank Gore?? If your guru doesn’t even know what players are on what team why would anyone take your picks seriously???

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