Virginia vs. Duke Preview/Pick

September 25, 2008 by Q

NCAA Football Betting – Virginia Cavaliers at Duke Blue Devils

The improved Duke Blue Devils (2-1 SU, 2-0 ATS), coming off an upset win a couple of weeks ago, will look to continue their momentum on Saturday when they take on the Virginia Cavaliers (1-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) in an Atlantic Coast Conference college football game that is set to kick off at Noon ET at Wallace Wade Stadium (natural turf) in Durham, NC.

Saturday, September 27
BetUS NCAA Football Betting Odds: DUKE -7, Total 44

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* VA has won ten of its last 15 games SU
* VA has lost four of its last five games SU
* VA has covered three of its last ten road games
* VA has won four of its last six road games SU
* VA has lost 12 of its last 18 road games SU
* DUKE has lost 22 of its last 25 games SU
* DUKE has lost 17 of its last 19 home games SU

Also…

* VA has won the last eight meetings SU
* The last three meetings have gone UNDER the total

Points and yards have been hard to come by for the Cavaliers, even when playing Division I-AA teams like Richmond. They were out-rushed 382-31 last week AT HOME against U-Conn, which shows how far things have deteriorated under Al Groh, who is most certainly a guy on the seat.

To think this was a program that won nine games, went to the Gator Bowl and sent a pair of first-round draft picks to the NFL, that is kind of surprising. But the Cavs haven’t gotten a TD pass from any of the quarterbacks they ave used (Peter Lalich, Marc Verica or Scott Deke) and they have gained less than any team in the country except for lowly Florida International.

David Cutcliffe does not have an offensive juggernaut yet at Duke (43rd nationally in offense), but you can see the improvement in his QB, Thaddeus Lewis, who has been mistake-free in 105 throws and tossed three touchdown passes last week in an upset of Navy. What’s interesting is that the Blue Devil stop unit really rose to the occasion in that one, holding the land-locked Middies to just 207 rushing yards in 46 attempts, which was way below their average.

We don’t want to get all chocked up about Duke, because it’s facing the roughest part of its schedule coming up, including a non-conference affair with newly-ranked Vanderbilt, but the fact that they have won a pair of home games this season represents remarkable progress considering that the Blue Devils carried a 16-game home losing streak into the season.

You have to swallow hard here, because Duke hasn’t been favored in a conference game since 2002, but we will nonetheless lay the points with the Blue Devils, the seven-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA college football betting odds.