Baylor vs. UConn Preview

September 18, 2008 by Q

Stingy UConn Huskies Host Baylor Bears In Matchup That Promises To Be Thriller

The Connecticut Huskies, (3-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U) shook off a poor Week Two performance against the Temple Owls on Sep. 6 very nicely on Saturday, pounding the Virginia Cavaliers 45-10 at home.

Now, a perfect 3-0, the Huskies get set for what looks like their toughest test of the young season in tonight’s matchup against Baylor.

UConn has relied on a powerful defense that has limited their opponents to just 229.0 total yards of offense, good for 15th in the nation. Connecticut has also limited their opponents to just 162.7 passing yards per game, (27th) and just 66.3 rushing yards per game, (19th). I guess I should also mention the fact that the Huskies are allowing a microscopic 7.3 points per game!

Connecticut’s offense isn’t exactly chopped liver as they are ranked fifth in the nation in rushing yards per game averaging … get this … an enormous 297.7 yards on the ground per game. UConn’s 30.7 points per contest ranks 47th nationally.

After dropping their season opener at to Wake Forest, 41-13, the Baylor Bears (2-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U) have bounced back to win consecutive games. After beating Northwestern State 51-6, Baylor pounded the Washington State Cougars into early submission, winning in a rout, 45-17 on Friday.

The Bears are putting up 447.3 total yards per game (30th) while averaging a whopping 242.3 rushing yards per game (12th) and an excellent 36.3 points per game.

Defensively, the Bears are holding their opponents to just 95.0 rushing yards per game (35th) and 21.3 points per contest.

Here is a look at the key trends for each team, followed by my analysis and NCAA Football Betting Free Picks.

The Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
The Bears are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
The Huskies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.
The Over is 4-0 in Bears last 4 non-conference games.
The Over is 5-1 in Bears last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The Under is 4-0 in Huskies last 4 Friday games.
The Under is 6-0 in Huskies last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

NCAAF Odds

Baylor Bears +12 -110
Indiana Hoosiers -12 -110

Over 50½ -110
Under 50½ -110

Analysis: I know the UConn Huskies are playing this contest at home, but I really feel like the Baylor Bears are a bit better than the 12-pont spread in this contest. I say take the Bears to cover, but I’ll also admit that the best bet on this matchup is to simply take the ‘Over’

NCAA Free Picks: Over 50½ Total Points, Baylor +12