Runnin’ Rebels vs Broncos NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping
UNLV is one of the least successful programs in the FBS. Their talent level is low because it seems that nobody wants to play there initially, though they do gather some transfers that have washed out of other big time schools.
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UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (1-6) vs #22 Boise State Broncos (5-1)
Saturday October 20
Bronco Stadium – Boise, ID
Moneyline: Boise State -7000, UNLV +3000 at BetOnline
Spread: Boise State -28
Their record to this point is no surprise though it is interesting that they got their one win against Air Force and lost their to their only FCS opponent – Northern Arizona.
On the road at Boise State there is little chance of an upset.
The Runnin Rebels offense is decent. They are in the top half of the nation in yards per game and score 27ppg.
Their bigger problem is that they don’t stop anybody giving up a whopping 36ppg.
The only opponent they held under 30 points was Northern Arizona which can hardly be looked at as an accomplishment. Due to the fact that they are in catchup mode so much freshman QB Nick Sherry has put up some yards – he might be a keeper.
Last year’s game against Boise was an easy cover for UNLV but the spread was a whopping 42 points even though the game was in Vegas.
This year it is only 28 but that reflects Boise’s current transition period as opposed to a sudden rise in performance for UNLV.
The closest comp is that UNLV lost by 27 at Louisiana Tech, who is probably better than Boise this year.
Their only loss this season was to Michigan State in the opener and they might be gaining some momentum with their recent wins against Fresno State and Southern Mississippi their most impressive of the season.
The hardest thing to get used to is not seeing the gaudy scores we grew accustomed too…but the Broncos are playing great defense.
Evidence of that came again last week, holding the high scoring Fresno State Bulldogs to just 10 points.
They did a great job bottling up Fresno back Robbie Rouse and put a lot of pressure on QB Derek Carr. The running game was solid but they are still struggling to get the passing game going with QB Joe Southwick.
Another average performance should be more than enough to get past UNLV.
The expectations for this Boise State team were muted which is why they have remained a pretty good ATS bet this year at 4-2. It won’t be filled with highlight reel performances but I expect Boise will be able to build a lead at halftime that will enable them to coast.
Beware the backdoor on this one for sure.
Spread Pick: UNLV +28
O/U Pick: Under
Score Prediction: Boise State 34 – UNLV 10